Coffee looks for jolt to form trading bottom

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCH14)

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher. Overall the market is in a trading range and could be forming a bottom. News of very small offers in the market kept futures from going much lower, but buying interest is thin. Export estimates from Vietnam remain below last year, but the trade continues to expect a big offer, perhaps after the Tet holidays end next week. Latin America is quiet, with offer differentials at very high levels and buyer differential bids well below the offers. Production ideas for Brazil remain about 54 to 55 million bags. Differentials are steady for Vietnam. Central American differentials are strong. Weather is reported to be good in all areas.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.677 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 109.82 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry weather, but there will be some showers midweek in Eastern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00, 110.00, and 106.00 March. Support is at 113.00, 112.00, and 110.00 March, and resistance is at 117.00, 118.00 and 122.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1670, and 1660 March, and resistance is at 1765, 1800, and 1820 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 136.00 March. Support is at 136.00, 135.00, and 131.50 March, and resistance is at 140.00, 143.00, and 145.00 March.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTH14)

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in consolidation trading. Bears point to the bad Price action after the very strong export sales report on Friday as a reason to keep pushing prices lower while Bulls point to tight supplies here in the US as a reason to buy. Prices are high enough now to cut off some demand and also to make some producers consider increasing planted area next year. But, the market needs to keep seeing demand, and needs to see some planting intentions from producers to be able to make longer term judgments. It is possible that futures continue in a trading range between 82.00 and 87.00 basis nearby futures for a while. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia with light precipitation and warm temperatures.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see snow leave the Southeast today and more precipitation move from west to east this weekend. Temperatures will average below normal, but will moderate this weekend. Texas will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal by Friday and into the weekend. The USDA spot price is 80.71 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.136 million bales, from 0.077 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 8250, 8185, and 8070 March. Support is at 83.70, 82.70, and 82.40 March, with resistance of 85.00, 85.30, and 85.90 March.

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