Strong exports aren’t enough to boost cotton prices

COTTON (NYBOT:CTH14)

General Comments: Futures closed lower in consolidation trading and despite a very strong weekly export sales report from USDA. There are chances that the improved demand can continue, but many will be willing to sell if the sales drop this week on ideas that the market price has gotten away from the demand. Traders say that there is good demand at the chart support areas under the current price area as mills here and in other parts of the world need to get some coverage. The U.S. and world economies are improving slowly and should support increases in demand over time as people start to buy clothes again. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia with light precipitation and warm temperatures.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. Texas will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal through Wednesday, then above normal by Friday. The USDA spot price is 83.19 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.071 million bales, from 0.069 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 86.70, 86.50, and 86.00 March, with resistance of 88.20, 89.00, and 89.20 March.

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJH14)

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on some forecasts for colder weather to hit Florida early this week. Florida temperatures should remain high enough that no damage is expected. Florida is harvesting a very small crop of oranges with good weather due to disease problems with the greening disease, and any freeze damage could cut production even more. The greening disease could cause reduced production for the next few years. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good, with mostly dry conditions. Irrigation water is available and is being used. Harvest remains active for early and mid-Oranges, but fruit sizes are reported to be small. The Valencia harvest is now starting. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers late in the week.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but some showers are posible midweek. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 139.00, 137.00, and 135.00 March, with resistance at 145.00, 146.00, and 147.00 March.

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