Sugar is sweet until you're drowning in it

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBH14)

General Comments: Futures were mixed, with nearby months a little higher and deferred months a little lower. The bull spreads were working as speculators decided to cover some short positions. There is not yet any change in the overall fundamental picture. There is still too much sugar around the world market as many traders think the surplus production for this year could be over 4.0 million tons. Thai offers are strong and differentials are holding steady. Thai Raw Sugar differentials are starting to weaken as Thai exporters try to move a big crop as fast as possible. Thai exporters are worried about increasing offers from India and lower prices for futures and differentials down the road. India is still offering. Brazil is offering less now that the harvest season is over, but still has Sugar to sell and will most likely have a big crop next year. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are rated as mostly good.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1500 March. Support is at 1500, 1490, and 1460 March, and resistance is at 1550, 1570, and 1590 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 403.00, 400.00, and 397.00 March, and resistance is at 410.00, 415.00, and 420.00 March.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTH14)

General Comments: Futures closed lower on ideas that futures were overbought after the recent strong rally. There are chances that the improved demand can continue, but many will be willing to sell if the sales drop this week on ideas that the market has gotten away from the demand. Traders say that there is good demand at the chart support areas under the current price area as mills here and in other parts of the world need to get some coverage. The US and world economies are improving slowly and should support increases in demand over time as people start to buy clothes again. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia with light precipitation and warm temperatures.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. Texas will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal this weekend and turn cold next week. The USDA spot price is 83.56 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.071 million bales, from 0.069 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 496,500 bales this year and 55,200 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 8,300 bales this year and 2,000 bales next year.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9000 March. Support is at 87.00, 86.70, and 86.00 March, with resistance of 88.20, 89.00, and 89.20 March.

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