Elliott Wave shows this currency could have a hard fall from grace

The Australian dollar reversed unexpectedly to the downside against the U.S. dollar (FOREX:AUDUSD) in the last few weeks and is now trading very close to yearly lows. As such, we are now tracking a new wave count as current bearish price action is quite strong and signals for a push to new downside levels. We are now observing an ending diagonal pattern because of contracting trendlines. Based on the current outlook, the pair could extend down to 0.8500-0.8600 in early 2014 where the wave (5) final leg within a pattern could look for a support.

AUD/USD weekly Elliott Wave Analysis


AUD/USD turned bearish as expected last week after we identified a temporary recovery labeled as wave 4. The pair is now moving south in a wave 5 that could reach levels around 0.9600 in the next week before we see a three wave reversal to the upside. Keep in mind that the pair is now in fifth wave, final part of an impulsive price action.

AUD/USD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis

AUD/USD four-hour

AUD/USD reversed perfectly lower this week from the 0.8886 figure where a broken channel line turned into resistance after a minor three wave rally up, now labeled as wave (ii). The pair is already at the lows now falling sharply down, which we think it's wave (iii) of a five wave decline in wave 5. 

AUD/USD four-hour Elliott Wave Analysis

About the Author

Gregor Horvat, based in Slovenia, has been in the forex markets since 2003. He is a technical analyst and individual trader who has worked for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. He also is founder of forex services on www.ew-forecast.com. EW-Forecast.com provides technical analysis of the financial markets, highlighting behavioral patterns based on the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP). Website: http://www.ew-forecast.com/

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