Going cuckoo for cocoa

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJH14)

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on some forecasts for colder weather to hit Florida this weekend and early next week. The weather forecasts show moderate temperatures for this week. Current forecasts do not call for damaging temperatures in longer rage forecasts, but the market is already tight and any shift to damaging temperatures could cause new crop losses for market that does not need a smaller supply. Florida is harvesting a very small crop of oranges with good weather due to disease problems with the greening disease, and any freeze damage could cut production even more. The greening disease could cause reduced production for the next few years. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good, with mostly dry conditions. Irrigation water is available and is being used. Harvest remains active for early and mid-Oranges, but fruit sizes are reported to be small. The Valencia harvest is now starting. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers late in the week.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 142.00, 139.00, and 137.00 March, with resistance at 145.00, 146.00, and 147.00 March.

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCH14)

General Comments: Futures closed lower on speculative selling tied to long liquidation. There was talk that a lot of Vietnamese Coffee was on its way to Europe and that a large part of this Coffee could be certified for delivery on the Exchange. That Coffee should start to show in certified stocks levels of LIFFE in the short term if true. Meanwhile, there is not too much going on in Latin America, with offer differentials climbing every day and buyer differential bids trying to hold the line. Traders are now working with production ideas for Brazil of about 54 to 55 million bags. Differentials are steady at strong levels for Vietnam, and some roasters have been turning to Indonesia for supplies. Central American differentials are strong. Weather is reported to be good in all areas.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.680 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 109.02 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00, 110.00, and 106.00 Marzo. Support is at 113.00, 112.00, and 110.00 March, and resistance is at 118.00, 122.00 and 124.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1670, 1620, and 1600 March. Support is at 1670, 1660, and 1630 March, and resistance is at 1710, 1740, and 1765 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 138.00, 136.00, and 135.00 March, and resistance is at 145.00, 147.00, and 149.00 March.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBH14)

General Comments: Futures were lower as the market continues to try to find a price level that cuts production and increases demand. There is still too much Sugar around the world market as many traders think the surplus production for this year could be over 4.0 million tons. Thai offers are strong and differentials are holding steady. Thai Raw Sugar differentials are starting to weaken as Thai exporters try to move a big crop as fast as possible. Thai exporters are worried about increasing offers from India and lower prices for futures and differentials down the road. India is still offering. Brazil is offering less now that the harvest season is over, but still has Sugar to sell and will most likely have a big crop next year. Safras e mercado yesterday forecast Sugarcane production to increase by 3% in the coming year and for Sugar production to increase by 2.3%. Demand might be getting better, but still have not been able to change the trend much as confirmed big deals have been almost impossible to find. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are rated as mostly good.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1500 March. Support is at 1490, 1460, and 1430 March, and resistance is at 1550, 1570, and 1590 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 403.00, 400.00, and 397.00 March, and resistance is at 410.00, 415.00, and 420.00 March.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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