This probably won't help the line at Starbucks, but it might help your wallet

Coffee falls on Vietnam supply questions


General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on some forecasts for colder weather to hit Florida this weekend and early next week. The weather forecasts show moderate temperatures for this week. Florida is harvesting a very small crop of oranges with good weather due to disease problems with the greening disease, and any freeze damage could cut production even more. The greening disease could cause reduced production for the next few years. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good, with mostly dry conditions. Irrigation water is available and is being used. Harvest remains active for early and mid-Oranges, but fruit sizes are reported to be small. The Valencia harvest is now starting. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers late in the week.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.  

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 142.00, 139.00, and 137.00 March, with resistance at 144.00, 146.00, and 147.00 March.


General Comments: Futures were slightly higher in New York, but lower in London. Weak demand worked against London, but New York held better on ideas that Raw Sugar prices are oversold. There is still too much Sugar around the world market. Thai offers are strong and differentials are holding steady. India is still offering. Brazil is offering less now that the harvest season is over, but still has Sugar to sell and will most likely have a big crop next year. Demand might be getting better, but still have not been able to change the trend much as confirmed big deals have been almost impossible to find. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are rated as mostly good.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1500 March. Support is at 1510, 1490, and 1460 March, and resistance is at 1550, 1570, and 1590 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 406.00, 403.00, and 400.00 March, and resistance is at 415.00, 420.00, and 423.00 March.


General Comments: Futures closed lower and the market is trying to hold a trading range. However, Price action is weak. Supplies from West Africa have increased and the market has more Cocoa to work with for at least the short-term. Arrivals from Ivory Coast and purchases from Ghana have been above expectations so far this year and at least as strong as last year. The main harvest should be coming to an end soon in Africa, and the mid-crop harvest is still a couple of months away. The overall fundamental picture should support generally strong prices as the supply situation should be tight on strong demand for the longer term. However, the production appears to have been underestimated due to the stronger than expected data from West Africa. A good midcrop production is expected in the Spring from Africa as weather now is good for the mid-crop development. Asian growing conditions are reported to be good.

Overnight News: Light showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions or light showers and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.715 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2660 and 2450 March. Support is at 2670, 2630, and 2580 March, with resistance at 2740, 2770, and 2800 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1650 March. Support is at 1715, 1710, and 1700 March, with resistance at 1750, 1760, and 1775 March.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at Learn even more on our website at

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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