Orange juice climbs as greening disease takes toll on production


General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on follow-through buying from the lower than expected Florida production estimates provided by USDA. Production for Florida was estimated at just 115 million boxes as the greening disease continues to hurt production. The greening disease could cause reduced production for the next few years. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good, with mostly dry and warm conditions. Irrigation water is available and is being used. Harvest is very active, but fruit sizes are reported to be small. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers late in the week.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions except for a few showers today. Temperatures will average above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 144.00, 142.00, and 139.00 March, with resistance at 152.00, 155.00, and 158.00 March.


General Comments: Futures closed higher but is still in its recent trading range. USDA showed higher US production and export demand to leave US ending stocks estimates unchanged on Friday and the market recovered yesterday after trading lower Friday on higher world production and ending stocks estimates. China is the number one buyer of US Cotton so the data can only hurt demand ideas down the road. Export sales have been poor for the last few weeks, and China has been quiet. There have been some private sources releasing analysis that shows next to no imports of World Cotton by China in the coming year as it reorganizes its support programs and tries to move massive government stocks. The US economy is improving slowly and should support increases in demand over time as people start to buy clothes again. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia with light precipitation and warm temperatures.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see precipitation tonight and tomorrow, then dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Texas will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is 80.16 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.044 million bales, from 0.042 million yesterday. 

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 82.40, 81.50, and 80.80 March, with resistance of 84.60, 85.00, and 85.30 March.

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