The British pound found some resistance against the dollar (FOREX:GBPUSD) recently around the 1.6600 figure, which is where we think the pair will form a top even if just temporary. Our primary count suggests that GBP/USD will fall in impulsive fashion because of a big picture with a bearish triangle. But for this confirmed scenario, we need an impulsive sell-off back to 1.5500. For us the most important is probability on short-term swings. As such, we are also tracking the second wave count, which is different on a big scale but same on the short-term. We see a completed five-waves up that now suggests a three-wave retracement back to 1.5900. As such, it seems that GBP/USD will be weakening in the next few weeks.
GBP/USD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis #1-correction from July 2013 low
GBP/USD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis #2- five up, now three down
On the four-hour chart BPU/SD is showing bearish pattern after an impulsive drop in price from 1.6600 followed by recent three-wave rally from 1.6220 low that is a corrective move, most likely wave (ii) that will complete current rise around 1.6500 region. A break of 1.6380 swing low may put the pair in bearish mode for 1.6220.
GBP/USD four-hour Elliott Wave Analysis