Cotton falls after poor export sales report

COTTON (NYBOT:CTH14)

General Comments: Futures closed lower after USDA reported poor export sales. Traders are worried about export demand after the recent rally in prices and the weaker Chinese economic data reported last week. The demand had held together better than expected by many analysts given the recent price rally, so the weak export sales created a bigger reaction on Friday. The U.S. economy is improving slowly and should support increases in demand over time as people start to buy clothes again. Traders think USDA can show reduced production this year and perhaps reduced planted area potential for the coming year in the reports Friday. Reduced production from the crop last year is very possible given that USDA showed good yields in the production reports this fall despite some very stressful weather seen over the Summer in Texas and over to the Southeast. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions early in the week and precipitation later in the week. Temperatures will average much below normal today and tomorrow, then will trend to near to above normal by the end of the week. Texas will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is 79.56 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.034 million bales, from 0.034 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 82.50, 81.70, and 81.40 March, with resistance of 83.85, 84.40, and 85.30 March.

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJH14)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on speculative buying tied to forecasts for some extreme cold in northern parts of the country, some of which could leak down to Florida. There does not seem to be anything going on with the weather systems to expect any dangers to the crop for the short term as the focus of the cold air should remain north and as delivery of cold air into Florida does not seem good. Northern parts of the US could see some of the coldest temperatures in years this week and Chicago could see the coldest temperatures in almost 20 years today. The greening disease has affected crops in a big way and could cause reduced production for the next few years. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Irrigation water is available and is being used. Harvest is very active, but fruit sizes are reported to be small. Brazil is seeing near normal temperatures and scattered showers. 

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but rain is possible late in the week. Temperatures will average much below normal today and tomorrow, then will trend to near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 137.00, 135.50, and 135.00 March, with resistance at 142.00, 144.00, and 145.00 March.

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