Cocoa trends down as speculators liquidate longs

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJH14)

General Comments: Futures closed lower as forecasts do not call for cold weather in Florida. Selling was noted in January as that month gets ready for deliveries to start on Thursday. Florida remains warm and dry. There does not seem to be anything going on with the weather systems to expect any dangers to the crop for the short term, even with some very cold weather to the north of the country in the forecast for next week. Northern parts of the US could see some of the coldest temperatures in years next week. The greening disease has affected crops in a big way and could cause reduced production for the next few years. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Irrigation water is available and is being used. Harvest is very active, but fruit sizes are reported to be small. Brazil is seeing near normal temperatures and scattered showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but rain is expected today. Temperatures will average mostly above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 137.50, 135.50, and 135.00 March, with resistance at 142.00, 144.00, and 145.00 March.

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCH14)

General Comments: Futures were higher in New York, but lower in London and Sao Paulo on reduced offers from just about everywhere. There was little interest noted by producers or roasters in any trading. Central American differentials are turning firmer now as northern South America offers are much harder to find. Many Central American producers and mills are out of the market and waiting for even more rallies in futures and differentials and probably will not offer in a serious way until next week. Vietnamese differentials have been weaker, and reports indicate that offers of Robusta have increased at least a little bit. None of the Coffee has hit London yet in terms of certified stocks. The increased Robusta offer should hurt Arabica demand as roasters will find it easier to buy the Robusta now. Weather is reported to be good in all areas.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightly lower today and are about 2.709 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 104.52 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions today and tomorrow, then scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry weather although some light precipitation is possible. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 110.00 and 105.00 March. Support is at 111.00, 109.00, and 105.50 March, and resistance is at 115.00, 118.00 and 120.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1635, and 1600 March, and resistance is at 1730, 1740, and 1760 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to up with objectives of 143.00 and 151.00 March. Support is at 138.00, 136.00, and 135.00 March, and resistance is at 142.50, 145.00, and 146.00 March.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBH14)

General Comments: Futures were lower in moderate volume trading. It was mostly a consolidation trade with little news around to affect the markets. Sugar continues to test resistance areas around 1650 NY March, but Bulls do not seem to have enough to get it above this level to stay. The primary focus of the market remains big supplies. Strong offers from India and Thailand keep overall trends down. However, the big offer from Brazil and the big harvest there is starting to wind down as mills start to shut down finally for the season and as rains increase. Thai offers are big right now as the harvest is very active there and differentials have been steady to lower. Demand might be getting better as the market moves into the New Year and shows signs of a short term low. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are rated as mostly good.

Overnight News: Brazil could see showers this weekend aft4er dry days today and tomorrow and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1620, 1610, and 1590 March, and resistance is at 1650, 1685, and 1725 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 444.00, 441.00, and 436.00 March, and resistance is at 450.00, 454.00, and 460.00 March.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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