The following table compares my projections for this week's report with the change in inventories for the same period last year. As you can see from the table last year's inventories are in directional sync with the projections. As such if the actual data is in line with the projections there will be only small changes in the year over year inventory comparisons for everything in the complex.
I am maintaining my oil view at neutral and downgrading bias to neutral for the entire oil complex. The oil complex is continuing to go through a major transition with supplies robust on the U.S. side of the equation but with ongoing problems in several international supply locations.
I am downgrading my natural gas view and my bias to neutral as the market sentiment seems to be changing once again and as the spot contract breached the technical support level of $4.30/mmbtu.
Markets are mostly lower heading into the U.S. trading session as shown in the following table.
Dominick A. Chirichella