Orange juice rises on demand, greening disease impact

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJF14)

General Comments: Futures closed higher, but well off the highs as Nielsen reported increased demand. It remains very cold in parts of the U.S., but Florida remains warm. The state is being protected from the very cold temperatures to the north by a very strong jet stream that will not let the cold penetrate into the Deep South. Traders are expecting USDA to show unchanged production in its estimates this week, but to lower production even more in coming production reports. The greening disease has affected crops in a big way and could cause reduced production for the next few years. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. It has turned mostly dry, which is seasonal, and reports indicate that crops are in good condition. Irrigation water is available. Harvest is very active. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Nielsen said that US Orange Juice consumption was 41.47 million gallons for the four weeks ending on November 23, up 1.3% from the previous four week period but 7.9% less than last year.   

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 145.00 January. Support is at 141.00, 138.00, and 136.50 January, with resistance at 145.00, 148.00, and 149.00 January.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTH14)

General Comments: Futures closed little changed as traders waited for the USDA supply and demand estimates that will be released later this morning. Traders expect unchanged ending stocks estimates on increased production and demand. The bulls were encouraged by the good employment data released Friday. The data implied that demand for clothes can increase as more and more people go back to work. There are questions about demand in China as the government there has offered its supplies into the domestic market and as economic data there has been more mixed. Wire reports indicate that some production has been lost in China after some bad weather in some growing áreas, but weather is better again now. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia. Harvest in the US should be about done now as winter moves south.

Overnight News: The Delta will be dry all week and Southeast should see some showers and snow through the middle of week, then dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal this week and near normal this weekend. Texas will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal this week and near normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is 77.15 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.088 million bales, from 0.091 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8310, 8690, and 8940 March. Support is at 79.60, 79.40, and 78.90 March, with resistance of 80.95, 81.70, and 82.20 March.

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