Cocoa rises on strong demand as supplies drop

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJF14)

General Comments: Futures closed higher as the weather in Florida remains generally very good. Current above normal readings in northern areas will be replaced by much below temperatures this weekend. No one is predicting any freezing temperatures for Florida, but some buying was seen just in case. Traders are expecting USDA to show unchanged production in its estimates next week, but to lower production even more in coming production reports. The greening disease has affected crops in a big way and could cause reduced production for the next few years. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. It has turned drier, which is seasonal, and reports indicate that crops are in good condition. Irrigation water is available. Harvest is increasing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and a few showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal.   

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 134.00, 131.00, and 130.00 January, with resistance at 140.00, 141.00, and 143.00 January.

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCH14)

General Comments: Futures were lower, with London the leader once again. It appears that some producers of Robusta decided to sell and London reacted after running higher all week. Roasters and others look for supplies and some have turned to Arabica, although not enough to move New York futures that much. However, it seems that Vietnamese producers might have started to sell, and some speculators decided to cover some longs after futures made some objectives for the move up. The Arabica market is seeing only light offers, but buying interest for Arabica overall remains very limited. Colombia remains the most active seller. The Brazil market there remains quiet as producers wait for prices to rally above the cost of production. The rest of northern Latin America was quiet, but there is talk of a lot of Coffee there as well. Central America is showing light offers as the harvest progresses under mostly good conditions. New York is trading in a range and is testing support areas.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.671 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 101.75 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry weather, but showers are likely in northern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 105.50, 104.00, and 101.00 March, and resistance is at 111.00, 113.00, and 115.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 January, and resistance is at 1730, 1750, and 1770 January. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 132.00, 131.00, and 129.00 March, and resistance is at 136.50, 138.00, and 140.00 March.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBH14)

General Comments: Futures were mixed in both New York and London in consolidation trading. The move ended a week and a half of steadily lower prices. Traders were talking about increased offers from India and Thailand. All this coming on the back of very high Sugarcane production in Brazil. Coopersucar said yesterday that it should have its export warehouse open in part again next month and expects to meet all export targets for this year and next year. The market needs some demand news. Chart trends remain down in New York and London. Countries like India and Thailand are selling as much as possible. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are rated as mostly good.

Overnight News: Brazil could see showers tomorrow, but mostly dry weather, and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1640, 1610, and 1580 March, and resistance is at 1685, 1700, and 1715 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 446.00 March. Support is at 446.00, 440.00, and 434.00 March, and resistance is at 460.00, 465.00, and 466.00 March.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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