Cocoa rises on strong demand as supplies drop


General Comments: Futures closed lower on follow-through long liquidation by speculators. Supplies should be available. Ideas of very strong demand are supporting prices, and certified stocks keep dropping in New York. Reports indicate that rains are minimal this week in West Africa, which should help harvest progress and processing progress. Much of West Africa is now reporting reduced production due to stressful conditions earlier in the growing season, but this has yet to bear out in official data outside of Nigeria. The overall fundamental picture should support generally higher prices as the supply situation should be tight once the harvest selling is done. Midcrop production conditions are rated as good

Overnight News: Scattered showers or dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.375 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2730, 2700, and 2650 March, with resistance at 2795, 2820, and 2845 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1700 and 1650 March. Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1660 March, with resistance at 1745, 1775, and 1790 March.


General Comments: Futures closed a little lower, and stayed in the recent trading range. There are questions about demand in China as the government there has offered its supplies into the domestic market. It sold half of its offer at the auction last week and will most likely offer more soon. Wire reports indicate that some production has been lost in China after recent bad weather in some growing areas. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia. Harvest should get interrupted again through the weekend when the cold and snow and rain arrive.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see some showers and snow through the weekend. Temperatures will average below normal. Texas will see rain and snow today, then dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The USDA spot price is 75.54 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.206 million bales, from 0.225 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 78.00, 77.40, and 76.65 March, with resistance of 79.65, 80.50, and 80.95 March.

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