The U.S. economy expanded in the third quarter at a faster pace than initially reported, led by the biggest increase in inventories since early 1998. Consumer spending slowed.
Gross domestic product climbed at a 3.6% annualized rate, up from an initial estimate of 2.8% and the strongest since the first quarter of 2012, Commerce department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted a 3.1% gain.
The buildup in stockpiles risks limiting factory production without stronger demand. Faster growth in household purchases, which grew at the slowest pace in almost four years, and a rebound in business investment would help companies justify increasing orders and adding workers.
“When you look at the relative optimism you’ve seen in the business surveys, the most logical explanation for the inventory build is a more positive outlook,” said Lewis Alexander, chief economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in New York, who forecast growth at 3.5%. Still, “the big missing ingredient is businesses being sufficiently confident to actually boost hiring and do capital spending.”
Forecasts for the increase in GDP, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., ranged from 2.2% to 3.6%, according to the Bloomberg survey. The GDP reading is the second of three for the quarter, with the final release scheduled for Dec. 20 when more information becomes available.
Another report today showed first-time claims for jobless benefits dropped by 23,000 to 298,000 last week, according to the Labor Department.
Stock-index futures erased gains as investors weighed the data to gauge the possible timing of a reduction in Federal Reserve stimulus. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing this month fell 0.1% to 1,789.3 at 8:52 a.m. in New York.
The pickup in GDP followed gains of 2.5% in the previous quarter and 1.1% in the first three months of the year.
Inventories increased at a $116.5 billion annualized pace in the third quarter, the most since the first quarter of 1998, after a previously reported $86 billion rate. In the second quarter, they rose at a $56.6 billion pace. Stockpiles added 1.68 percentage points to GDP last quarter, double the initial estimate and the biggest contribution since the end of 2011.