Minor stock market cycle rapidly fading toward negative

MAAD & CPFL Review


Market Snapshot for session ending 12-03-13


Net Chg


S&P 500 Index




Dow Jones Industrials




NASDAQ Composite




Value Line Index




Russell 2000




Minor Cycle* (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Positive / Neutral

Intermediate Cycle* (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Positive

Major Cycle* (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive

* Cycle status is based on S&P 500.

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • More selling developed in major indexes Tuesday.
  • Market volume increased 7.7% on weakness.
  • S&P 500 remains positive on Minor Cycle until lower edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1790.68 through Wednesday), but pricing in bellwether was rapidly closing in on that level. Intermediate Cycle remains positive so long as S&P holds above lower edge of 10-Week Price Channel (1697.15 through December 6).
  • Our VIX-based volatility indicator, VBVI, declined Tuesday to 75.76% from Monday’s 83.85%. Indicator remains moderately “Overbought.” At October 9 short-term low VBVI was plotted at 26.29%. Intermediate Cycle VBVI remains “Overbought” at 99%.
  • Daily MAAD was net negative Tuesday with 3 issues up and 17 down. Indicator made new high last Friday and remains above uptrend line stretching back to November 2012. Daily MAAD Ratio was last just above “Neutral” at 1.02%.
  • Daily CPFL was negative by 2.53 to 1 Tuesday after rallying to highest point since October 9 on Monday. But indicator remains below June 11 short to intermediate-term peak, uptrend line stretching back to October 2011, and major resistance high made February 25, 2011. Daily CPFL was last moderately “Overbought” at 1.32.

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • Selling over past few days in major indexes has given short-term trend in effect since October 9 that look of potential negativity. In fact, Dow 30 could signal reversal to Minor Cycle negative with relative ease.
  • Short-term advance is nearly two months old and “Overbought” with Momentum having confirmed none of strength since October 25. Such extremes and divergence do not usually play out well.
  • And fact that Daily MAAD is rapidly closing in on uptrend line stretching back to November 2012 is yellow flag. But with new high last week in Daily MAAD, we look forward to a new negative divergence between Daily MAAD and major indexes to suggest at least an intermediate-term high. That divergence has yet to be created which means we cannot preclude another upside stab by prices.

Index Price Channel Stops (10-Bar MAs of Highs/Lows ) Weekly Monthly








S&P 500 Index

SELL 1783.38

SELL 1787.31

SELL 1790.68

SELL 1793.71

SELL 1796.19

SELL 1697.15

SELL 1525.71

Dow Jones Industrials

SELL 15888.40

SELL 15927.07

SELL 15962.76

SELL 15969.40

SELL 16012.08

SELL 15165.26

SELL 14176.10

NASDAQ Composite

SELL 3938.65

SELL 3948.61

SELL 3957.90

SELL 3971.62

SELL 3988.86

SELL 3772.43

SELL 3205.62

Value Line Index

SELL 4183.98

SELL 4194.09

SELL 4203.23

SELL 4213.56

SELL 4229.66

SELL 4013.80

SELL 3444.08

Russell 2000

SELL 1104.30

SELL 1108.09

SELL 1111.73

SELL 1116.49

SELL 1122.09

SELL 1067.84

SELL 909.73

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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