Trading the E-Mini S&P 500 in December

Market Pulse for Dec. 3

This past Thanksgiving trading week, the December 2013 E-mini S&P 500 (CME:ESZ13) opened at 1802 and closed at 1804. We could be seeing an early month correction along with end of the year profit-taking. As I am sure many of you know, December is the second best month for equity returns averaging an estimated 1.5% as reported by Bloomberg. Just going back to 2000 you will find in December we saw 11 times where the S&P closed higher than its open in the month. The two years we did not see this happen were December 2002 and December 2007. So if history repeats itself we should see the S&P close higher than its monthly open of 1806.25. If we see Bloomberg’s average return realized, the S&P will close above 1830.

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