Cotton rises after storm raises quality questions

COTTON (NYBOT:CTH14)

General Comments: Futures closed higher. Price action was strong, and follow through buying today could indicate that a significant low has been made. Prices are still getting support from the storm that hit the production areas last week. Quality has suffered with the storm, and there is potential for some yield loss as well. There are questions about demand in China as the government there has offered its supplies into the domestic market. It sold half of its offer at the auction yesterday. The proposed sales could hurt demand for US Cotton in a big way if the government sales are made. They only sold half the offer last week. Wire reports indicate that some production has been lost in China after recent bad weather in some growing areas. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see dry weather through the middle of the week, then some showers and snow late in the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal early in the week, then near to below normal. Texas will see dry conditions early in the week and rain and snow at the end of the week. Temperatures will average above normal early in the week, then below normal. The USDA spot price is 75.68 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.236 million bales, from 0.232 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 78.00, 77.40, and 76.65 March, with resistance of 79.65, 80.50, and 80.95 March.

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJF14)

General Comments: Futures closed mostly a little higher after making new highs for the move. It was mostly a quiet session due to the holiday. The freeze season is not all that far away and there is usually some speculative buying that appears at this time and as soon as the cold air starts to filter in from Canada. Temperatures have been mostly below normal in northeast and north central parts of the country, and cold air was seen in some of the far south over the holiday. Traders are expecting USDA to lower production even more in coming production reports. The greening disease has affected crops in a big way and could cause reduced production for the next few years. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. It has turned drier, which is seasonal, and reports indicate that crops are in good condition. Irrigation water is available. Harvest is increasing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal.  

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 142.00, 143.00, and 145.00 January. Support is at 138.00, 135.00, and 131.00 January, with resistance at 143.00, 145.50, and 148.00 January.

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