Stock indexes capture new highs in low-volume week

Weekly Review: MAAD & CPFL Analysis

Conclusion

While new closing highs on holiday volume last week were not a surprise, more buying without abatement into the first weeks of the new year, considering the “Overbought” status of all Cycles, including Minor, Intermediate, and Major, could be. Also, considering the fact that all of the major indexes are now within range of our upside Measured Move targets as calculated from the March 2009 bull market lows, it could turn out that the confluence of failing indicators like CPFL, Momentum, and CV in Emini futures contracts could be the tip of an iceberg that will ultimately sink this bull market.

In the meantime, we continue to wait for additional negative divergences to develop such as in our Most Actives series (MAAD) and in pricing itself to the extent new highs in the major indexes are followed by the failure to make more new highs. Ultimately price will be the final determinant of the success or failure of this market.

MAAD daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL daily data for past 30 days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

10-18-13

15

5

10-18-13

67955

55686

10-21-13

10

10

10-21-13

71966

35027

10-22-13

11

8

10-22-13

59620

10160

10-23-13

3

17

10-23-13

33177

15783

10-24-13

9

11

10-24-13

19346

12420

10-25-13

12

8

10-25-13

19270

8891

10-28-13

10

10

10-28-13

26553

34754

10-29-13

14

6

10-29-13

43859

20258

10-30-13

8

11

10-30-13

31442

46932

10-31-13

6

14

10-31-13

38287

21692

11-1-13

12

8

11-1-13

35295

65349

11-4-13

14

5

11-4-13

41606

12553

11-5-13

12

8

11-5-13

37948

19016

11-6-13

10

10

11-6-13

45613

30618

11-7-13

4

16

11-7-13

32415

45853

11-8-13

17

3

11-8-13

38660

42688

11-11-13

8

11

11-11-13

27883

21387

11-12-13

9

11

11-12-13

14778

17174

11-13-13

20

0

11-13-13

32932

17842

11-14-13

12

8

11-14-13

62427

35596

11-15-13

16

4

11-15-13

36651

8671

11-18-13

6

14

11-18-13

54722

34491

11-19-13

6

13

11-19-13

19692

39707

11-20-13

6

13

11-20-13

23119

23331

11-21-13

16

4

11-21-13

22068

11450

11-22-13

14

6

11-22-13

31654

14977

11-25-13

9

11

11-25-13

23151

9695

11-26-13

12

8

11-26-13

11580

8740

11-27-13

15

4

11-27-13

17480

14633

11-29-13

12

8

11-29-13

16338

7759

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

5-10-13

16

4

5-10-13

101919

27785

5-17-13

16

4

5-17-13

264768

40669

5-24-13

7

13

5-24-13

133188

105220

5-31-13

10

10

5-31-13

52189

172660

6-7-13

14

6

6-7-13

208337

89250

6-14-13

6

14

6-14-13

84672

121886

6-21-13

4

16

6-21-13

47968

226866

6-28-13

16

4

6-28-13

102801

64660

7-5-13

11

9

7-5-13

79591

26170

7-12-13

18

2

7-12-13

145875

46051

7-19-13

12

8

7-19-13

60057

30066

7-26-13

9

11

7-26-13

39694

27418

8-2-13

16

3

8-2-13

52347

54888

8-9-13

9

11

8-9-13

44818

132161

8-16-13

5

15

8-16-13

49366

206060

8-23-13

12

7

8-23-13

39357

90644

8-30-13

1

19

8-30-13

64499

287292

9-6-13

18

2

9-6-13

62543

58305

9-13-13

18

2

9-13-13

89735

66677

9-20-13

17

2

9-20-13

99524

121395

9-27-13

9

11

9-27-13

41276

194942

10-4-13

10

8

10-4-13

55191

147092

10-11-13

11

9

10-11-13

204436

146198

10-18-13

16

4

10-18-13

254565

87370

10-25-13

11

9

10-25-13

146265

55341

11-1-13

10

10

11-1-13

137419

177101

11-8-13

11

9

11-8-13

193159

100780

11-15-13

17

3

11-15-13

208602

58644

11-22-13

9

11

11-22-13

153543

74314

11-29-13

15

5

11-29-13

56034

32638

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

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About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

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