Orange juice rises on cold weather forecasts

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJF14)

General Comments: Futures closed mostly a little higher on forecasts for below normal temperatures to invade Florida. January closed lower on spreads and long liquidation. Overall prices held the trading range of last week and tested both ends of the range. Colder weather will remain in the US this week. The freeze season is not all that far away and there is usually some speculative buying that appears at this time and as soon as the cold air starts to filter in from Canada. The colder air hit the Midwest and Northeast over the weekend, but will moderate some with the passage of time this week. Traders are expecting USDA to lower production even more in coming production reports. The greening disease has affected crops in a big way and could cause reduced production for the next few years. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. It has turned drier, which is seasonal, and reports indicate that crops are in good condition. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry conditions or a few showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal.  

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 142.00, 143.00, and 145.00 January. Support is at 135.00, 131.00, and 130.00 January, with resistance at 140.00, 143.00, and 145.50 January.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTH14)

General Comments: Futures closed higher as snow moved through Texas and could have hurt the crop quality and perhaps yields. The system is expected to move east through the holiday and could create additional losses in the Delta and Southeast. There are questions about demand in China as the government there is expected to offer its supplies into the domestic market. It was expected to make an announcement last week but none was made. The proposed sales could hurt demand for US Cotton in a big way if the government sales are made. Wire reports indicate that some production has been lost in China after recent bad weather in some growing areas. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia. US crop conditions right now are generally good in Texas amid dry weather. The Delta and Southeast are reporting generally favorable conditions as well.

Overnight News: The Delta will see mostly dry weather. The Southeast should see some big rains today, then will turn drier temperatures will average near to above normal this week and below normal this weekend. Texas will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is 74.65 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.232 million bales, from 0.222 million yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 78% harvested, from 68% last week, 88% last year, and 83% average.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7510 March. Support is at 76.20, 75.60, and 75.00 March, with resistance of 77.40, 77.65, and 78.00 March.

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