Paulson’s sentiment echoes other investors who have lost faith in the metal as a store of value. Global ETP holdings have dropped to the lowest since April 2010, with more than $73 billion erased from their combined value since the peak in October 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Billionaires George Soros and Daniel Loeb sold their entire investments in the SPDR Gold Trust in the second quarter, U.S. government filings showed. Prices tumbled into a bear market in April.
Gold may slide to $1,050 by the end of next year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report Nov. 20. The bank said it’s projecting “significant” declines through 2014.
The metal climbed 70% from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed expanded its balance sheet through debt purchases, fueling the outlook for rising inflation. Four of five investors expect the Fed to delay a decision to taper until March or later, with just 5% looking for a move next month, according to the latest Bloomberg Global Poll.
“Fundamentally, it strikes me the monetary policy remains extremely positive and accommodating for gold,” said Adrian Day, who manages about $135 million of assets as the president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. “The sellers have to get exhausted. I’m not sure we’re at that point yet, but I think we’re very close.”
Janet Yellen, nominated to be next chairman of the Fed, signaled during her Nov. 14 testimony to the Senate Banking Committee that she’ll continue with quantitative easing until there’s a robust recovery. The European Central Bank this month lowered its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.25%, citing the possibility of a prolonged period of low inflation.
The cost of living in the U.S. fell 0.1% in October, a Labor Department report showed Nov. 20. The producer-price index slumped 0.2% last month, after a 0.1% drop in September, a separate report showed the next day. Gold tumbled 35% since reaching an all-time high of $1,923.70 in September 2011.
U.S. inflation is running at 1%, half the rate of the past decade. Expectations for increasing costs as measured by the break-even rate for five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities fell 12% this year.