Cotton traders worry about potential China reserves sale

COTTON (NYBOT:CTH14)

General Comments: Futures closed mostly lower on China demand worries as traders waited for word on the potential Chinese sales from government reserves. China could delay the announcement and that would create new import interest there. There was no announcement last week, but one had been expected. Wire reports indicate that some production has been lost in China after recent bad weather in some growing areas. Ideas are that the sales there would kill demand for imported Cotton, especially from the US. Scattered showers are in the forecast for late this week in eastern areas, but the crop should remain in good condition as the rains are not expected to be big. It will turn cold this weekend. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia. US crop conditions right now are generally good in Texas amid dry weather. The Delta and Southeast are reporting generally favorable conditions as well.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see light precipitation today and a mostly dry weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and below normal this weekend. Texas will see some precipitation on Friday and a dry weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but below normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is 73.49 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.213 million bales, from 0.225 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7510 March. Support is at 76.20, 75.60, and 75.00 March, with resistance of 77.40, 77.65, and 78.00 March.

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJF14)

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on forecasts for below normal temperatures to invade Florida. Colder weather will remain in the US this week. The freeze season is not all that far away and there is usually some speculative buying that appears at this time and as soon as the cold air starts to filter in from Canada. The colder air hit the Midwest and Northeast over the weekend, but will moderate some with the passage of time this week. Traders are expecting USDA to lower production even more in coming production reports. The greening disease has affected crops in a big way and could cause reduced production for the next few years. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry conditions or a few showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. USDA said that FCOJ in Cold Storage was 0.786 billion pounds.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 142.00, 143.00, and 145.00 January. Support is at 135.00, 131.00, and 130.00 January, with resistance at 140.00, 143.00, and 145.50 January.

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