From the December 2013 issue of Futures Magazine • Subscribe!

Correlated opportunities in the Swiss franc

In addition, the Swiss franc depicts behavior that repeats across trading sessions. This can be observed and recognized after following the market on a day-to-day basis over an extended period. One such pattern is relatively simple — a basic surge in either direction — but alert traders can be prepared to take advantage of this surge when it happens. Here are the parameters of the move:

  • Once a day, typically in the morning, the Swiss franc will make a move that is generally worth 20-30 ticks.
  • The move often is seen following a major economic news announcement, in which case it may happen much later in the day. Case-in-point: On Sept. 18, the move didn’t occur until after the 2 p.m. statement of the Federal Open Market Committee.
  • If no major news announcement is planned, then generally the move will occur anytime after 10 a.m. (EST) once the markets have settled down post-opening and there is a better sense of direction.
  • This move corresponds to an opposite move in the U.S. Dollar Index.
  • This post-10 a.m. move does not exclude other moves throughout the day. It’s identified here as a repetitive pattern that we can anticipate and exploit. Examples of recent moves in the December futures contract for both the Swiss franc and the dollar index can be seen in “Up surge” (below) and “Order up” (next page).

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