But what is important here is what can possibly turn this market since nothing seems to be able to do it. As the season turns to Santa Claus, it’s going to be incredibly hard to get a meaningful pullback between Thanksgiving and Christmas. I know I told you this last week but time is getting late, and I have to start looking ahead to January. They’ll probably hit it in early December but at this stage of the game it’s not likely to come anywhere close to its potential because it has the seasonal euphoric period working against it. Talk about euphoria, with a VIX trading near 12, how much more euphoric can it get? Probably not a lot because people are still frustrated with Obamacare and now many are skeptical of this Iranian nuclear deal. The President says this is a major step in the right direction. I hope he’s right. But in the next breath he said the Israelis and others were going to be skeptical. Well, if the one country that is put at risk the most is not on board with it, what does it really say about the quality of this deal? On the Sunday analysis it was stated it would take a minimum of 6 months to figure out if this is something to build upon. We’ll see but I’m skeptical too.
The optimists believe an Iranian deal putting one million barrels a day back on the market will tank the oil market. All I can tell you is we have a major divergence working between oil, heating oil and the stock market. With equities at highs, oil is at the bottom of the range and WTI is not even confirming the strong bounce in heating oil where the two tend to stay on the same track most of the time. The oil market is trying to tell us something. We are going to find out real soon.
But the moral to the story is we don’t yet have a bubble. When you go to the dry cleaners, do they have CNBC on like they did in 2000? If they take out the important 161 relationship in the NASDAQ, we might even see a change in sentiment to the point Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob want to get involved.