Cocoa falls on light volume despite strong demand


General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on light volume and long liquidation. Ideas of very strong demand are supporting prices. Talk of rains in parts of West Africa created supply fears as that means the Cocoa cannot be dried properly before getting to ports. The overall fundamental picture should support generally higher prices as the supply situation should be tight once the harvest selling is done. Trade sources such as the ICCO keep talking about an extended period of short supplies and that the short production scenario could last for years. Butter prices are moving higher again will support higher futures prices this week.

Overnight News: Scattered showers or dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.498 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2775, 2755, and 2740 March, with resistance at 2820, 2860, and 2890 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1810 March. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1680 March, with resistance at 1790, 1800, and 1830 March.


General Comments: Futures closed mostly higher on another week of strong export sales and as traders waited for word on the potential Chinese sales from government reserves. China could delay the announcement and that would create new import interest there. There has been no announcement this week, but one had been expected. Wire reports indicate that some production has been lost in China after recent bad weather in some growing areas. Ideas are that the sales there would kill demand for imported Cotton, especially from the US. Scattered showers are in the forecast for late this week in eastern areas, but the crop should remain in good condition as the rains are not expected to be big. It will turn cold this weekend. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia. US crop conditions right now are generally good in Texas amid dry weather. The Delta and Southeast are reporting generally favorable conditions as well.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see light precipitation today and a mostly dry weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and below normal this weekend. Texas will see some precipitation on Friday and a dry weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but below normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is 74.39 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.213 million bales, from 0.225 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 78.10, 77.40, and 76.80 March, with resistance of 79.40, 80.60, and 81.00 March.

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