If Friday were to fulfill the outstanding new high close… then would that buy the rally even more protection as it creates another upside objective? Probably, yes. And the impending holiday offers seasonal bullishness to further inhibit sellers. Bears will have to be tricky to be at all productive anytime soon.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Wednesday’s late dip being sponsored by weak hands and the three-day pullback had ended was confirmed by Thursday’s gap up. Retracing back to Wednesday morning’s ECB knee-jerk reaction high confirmed that momentum had reversed up. Closing positive above all other timing window highs confirmed the intraday rally was sponsored by strong hands.
But not too strong. Gapping up impatiently created a gap back to Wednesday’s close, confirming the recovery’s sponsorship is weak hands. Leaving outstanding a retest of oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s low confirms as much, too.
Last Friday’s new trend high close all but requires there to be at least one more. While the market has reached levels where a brief opening surge could easily probe new highs, that doesn’t ensure maintaining the probe through the close. And if the market intends to top here instead of extending higher, then it should avoid another trend high close Friday.
What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Probing a fresh high well above 1800.00 intraday Friday, but closing under last Friday’s 1792.00 low, could at least reverse momentum down for a deeper drop than this week’s 1774.50 low. Not even attacking last Friday’s high before the weekend would keep alive potential for reversing down next week anyway.
Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.