Coffee falls as producers look for confirmation of low

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJF14)

General Comments: Futures closed lower in mostly quiet trading. It seemed to be a day for speculators to take some profits and look to get long again later in the week. Colder weather should return to the US this weekend and next week, although Florida will not see the extreme cold. The freeze season is not all that far away and there is usually some speculative buying that appears at this time and as soon as the cold air starts to filter in from Canada. Traders are now expecting USDA to lower production even more in coming production reports. The greening disease has affected crops in a bigger way than many in the trade expected. Demand remains weak. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry conditions or a few showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for a few showers this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and below normal this weekend.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 143.00 January. Support is at 135.00, 131.00, and 130.00 January, with resistance at 140.00, 143.00, and 145.50 January.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBH14)

General Comments: Futures were a little lower yesterday. There was not much in the way of demand news to support the market. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies available to the cash market, and chart trends remain generally down as offers remain available. Countries like India and Thailand are selling as much as possible. No big demand reports have been seen in the press lately. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are rated as mostly good. There has not been any news of losses to sugar areas in Vietnam and China in the wake of the storm that moved into those countries after devastating Philippines, but some losses are possible. India xould see some losses from unseasonal cyclone activity in the northeast and east part of the country. Weather in Brazil appears to be mostly good.

Overnight News: Brazil could see showers with near to above normal tempertures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1750, 1735, and 1715 March, and resistance is at 1795, 1815, and 1825 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 457.00 March. Support is at 466.00, 462.00, and 460.00 March, and resistance is at 472.00, 477.00, and 478.00 March.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCH14)

General Comments: Futures closed higher and at new highs for the last two years on follow through buying. Ideas of very strong demand are supporting prices. The overall fundamental picture should support generally higher prices as the supply situation should be tight once the harvest selling is done. Trade sources such as the ICCO keep talking about an extended period of short supplies and that the short production scenario could last for years. A Nigerian official said that the main growing area is not producing as many beans as expected and that prices are working higher in the country. Camaroon is noting a short crop as well. On the other hand, Ghana is expecting production to increase to 24,000 tons this year, from 19,000 tons last year due to favorable weather and new trees coming into production from a replanting program. Ivory Coast expects production to be about the same as last year. Butter prices are moving higher again will support higher futures prices this week.

Overnight News: Scattered showers or dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.527 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2775, 2755, and 2740 March, with resistance at 2830, 2860, and 2890 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1810 March. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1680 March, with resistance at 1800, 1830, and 1860 March.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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