Coffee falls as producers look for confirmation of low

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCH14)

General Comments: Futures were a little lower in all markets. London held better than New York on reports of excessive rains in the last week or two in Vietnam that has halted the harvest. The Coffee Association there is asking the government to buy 20% of the harvest this year in an effort to support world prices. Charts still show that futures are testing the upper end of the short term trading range in New York and that trends are up for at least the short term in London and Sao Paulo. Industry and producers appeared to be quiet, but both are watching carefully for signs of a confirmed low. Vietnam is at harvest, but rains are big there right now and no harvesting is being done. So far, offers from Vietnam have been light, but the harvest should resume and then offers might increase. However, producers there also do not like the price, so the selling might stay weaker than normal. It will take more positive price action in London to get the producers to increase selling. Brazil has a lot of Coffee to sell yet, but the market there is quiet. The rest of northern Latin America was quiet, but there is talk of a lot of Coffee there as well.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.693 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 101.89 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal, but will turn cooler late in the week. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get light showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 109.00, 105.50, and 104.00 March, and resistance is at 111.00, 115.00, and 117.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1620 January. Support is at 1520, 1500, and 1480 January, and resistance is at 1605, 1640, and 1665 January. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to up with objectives of 135.00 and 139.00 March. Support is at 131.00, 129.00, and 128.00 March, and resistance is at 135.00, 138.00, and 141.00 March.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower as traders waited for word on the potential Chinese sales from government reserves. China could begin to sell Cotton from state reserves this week. Ideas are that the sales there would kill demand for imported Cotton, especially from the US. Scattered showers are in the forecast for late this week in eastern areas, but the crop should remain in good condition as the rains are not expected to be big. It will turn cold this weekend. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia. US crop conditions right now are generally good in Texas amid dry weather. The Delta and Southeast are reporting generally favorable conditions as well.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry weather early this week and light precipitation late this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and near to below normal this weekend. Texas will see dry conditions through Wednesday and precipitation on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but below normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is 73.97 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.221 million bales, from 0.208 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 75.20, 74.35, and 74.20 December, with resistance of 77.70, 78.50, and 78.80 December.

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