Stock indexes make new highs, bringing long-term goals closer

Weekly Review: MAAD & CPFL Analysis

 

Market Snapshot:
 

Last

Week Chg

Week %Chg

S&P 500 Index

1798.18

+27.57

+1.55%

Dow Jones Industrials

15961.70

+199.92

+1.26%

NASDAQ Composite

3985.97

+66.74

+1.70%

Value Line Index

4230.68

+72.15

+1.73%

Russell 2000

1116.20

+16.23

+1.47%

Minor Cycle* (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Positive

Intermediate Cycle* (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Positive

Major Cycle* (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive

* Cycle status is based on S&P 500

“Rollin’, rollin’, rollin’…keep them doggies rollin’….” Lest we go too far down memory lane, ever heard of that well trodden 1960s western drama, “Rawhide”? Its desert dust lingered in our youthful consciousness at a time when Gil Favor weekly rode onto the screen to right all wrongs while saving a fair maiden or two along the way.

So what does that TV show have to do with the stock market? When a final high for the bull market that began in March 2009 is finally put in place, the odds are excellent there will be no Gil Favor to save the day. Investors who have over-stayed their welcome, believing that the first downward break is yet another buying opportunity, will be proven wrong.

Long-term upside “Measured Move” targets as calculated from March 2009 bear lows

 

Recent High

Upside Target

Diff / 11-15

Diff / 9-27

S&P 500

1798.22

1778

+1.14%

-2.7%

Dow 30

15884.99

16810

-5.50%

-6.5%

NASDAQ Comp.

3985.97

4025

-.96%

-5.6%

Value Line

4230.95

4410

-4.06%

-7.8%

Russell 2000

1123.26

1160

-3.17%

-6.7%

Average:         -2.51%                -5.86%           

Over the past several weeks we have offered a table (see above) of potential long-term upside Measured Move targets for the five major indexes we follow. The table was first presented the week ending September 27 when the average difference for the five majors was 5.86% below long-term upside targets. Since then the indexes have shaved that average by nearly 3% and were last just 2.51%, on average, from long-term targets. The big outlier is the Dow 30 that remains 5.5% short of its goal. But the S&P 500 is more than 1% better. Point is, if our calculations are anywhere near the mark, this bull market could be very close to its long-term high.

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