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Gold bears return before Yellen signals more easing

Net-long position slumped 37%

By Luzi Ann Javier and Debarati Roy, Bloomberg

November 18, 2013 • Reprints

Crude Supplies

U.S. crude-oil stockpiles climbed for an eighth week as output expanded to the highest since January 1989, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, have unlocked supplies in shale formations in North Dakota, Texas and other states.

Speculators turned bearish on copper, with bets on price declines outnumbering wagers on gains by 8,117 contracts in futures and options. That’s the first time investors turned net- short since Sept. 17. Copper futures slumped 2.2 percent in New York last week, the biggest drop since late August.

A measure of speculative positions across 11 agricultural products was little changed at 362,838 contracts, up 0.1 percent from a week earlier, the CFTC data show. The S&P’s Agriculture Index of eight commodities tumbled 20 percent this year.

Money managers held a net-short position in wheat of 47,251 contracts, compared with 19,535 a week earlier. Investors have been betting on price declines for corn since June, and are also bearish on coffee and soybean oil. Cotton holdings fell to the lowest since December and cocoa wagers fell last week for the first time since July.

Record Crops

U.S. farmers will collect a record harvest of 13.989 billion bushels of corn this year, the Department of Agriculture said on Nov. 8. Global coffee output will exceed consumption for a fourth season in 2014, the longest glut in 11 years, the USDA estimates.

“The fundamental issue of oversupply for several commodities is a reality,” said Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategist in Seattle at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $110 billion of assets. “We saw some temporary interest come intocommodities because of Yellen, but we don’t think the story has changed. The Fed will have to slow the stimulus at some point.”

www.bloomberg.com

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Related Terms
US Federal Reserve 8527Gold 7530bank 6455Bloomberg 5254crude oil 3328European Central Bank 3208metal 3075Standard & Poor 2008Texas 1372USDA 971cftc 937World Gold Council 930Barack Obama 909precious metal 869Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 864Ben S. Bernanke 751U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission 658Energy Information Administration 621Janet Yellen 621Ben S 613Yellen 489North Dakota 254George Soros 225John Paulson 199Prices 193agricultural products 154Senate Banking Committee 146Treasury Inflation Protected Securities 115Futures 115Jeffrey Currie 88soybean oil 87Paulson & Co. 81Bullion 80Department of Agriculture 60similar products 34Donald Selkin 32National Securities Corp. 30exchange-traded product 30West Texas Intermediate 24Michael Shaoul 21Rob Haworth 20easing 18Marketfield Asset Management LLC 10crude-oil stockpiles 3Yellen 2net long 1

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