Cotton falls on Chinese liquidation rumors

COTTON (NYBOT:CTZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower once again. There is a lot of talk that China might start to liquidate some of the massive supplies of Cotton it has amassed over the last couple of years and that this could kill demand in world markets. China holds about half the world's supplies right now. Demand is not strong, anyway, and the harvest is active. Good weather in US productions areas should be replaced by scattered showers over the middle of the week, but the crop should remain in good condition as the rains are not expected to be big. Traders should get more reports on demand this week. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia. US crop conditions right now are generally good in Texas. The Delta and Southeast are reporting generally favorable conditions as well. Trends are down on the charts.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry weather today, then some showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal late in the week. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is 73.49 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.172 million bales, from 0.160 million yesterday. 

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 76.40 and 75.10 December. Support is at 75.30, 75.00, and 74.35 December, with resistance of 77.10, 77.50, and 77.80 December.

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJF14)

General Comments: Futures closed higher as traders look ahead to the USDA production reports on Friday. There will be less production this year due to greening disease and some unfavorable weather earlier in the year. Demand remains weak and there have been no tropical systems to hit the state. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Dry weather has returned and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Fruit is reported to be sizing well and of consistent size and trees are reported in good condition. Some early harvest has started. Brazil is seeing near normal temperatures and showers. 

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 130.00 January. Support is at 120.00, 117.00, and 116.00 January, with resistance at 124.00, 126.00, and 127.00 January.

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