Stock momentum halted on lower growth outlook

(CME:ESZ13) - Low Volatility, Market Looking For A Catalyst: Equities grinded higher yesterday as reallocation momentum to start the month led the S&P to a new swing high since the pullback; 1764. This morning however, a lower growth outlook and stronger yen have put a halt on momentum and the S&P finds itself back at the major 1757 level. Traders are looking for a continued close above here. Pullbacks will encourage profit taking ahead of the ECB meeting Thursday and Nonfarm Payroll Friday. A retest of support at 1750-53 will be attractive to the bulls on the first test. However, if the market sticks to this level for an extended period of time it will encourage a further consolidation lower, likely taking out last week's swing lows. A 2% correction will put the S&P at the major 1734.50-1736 level. Today's ISM Non-Manufacturing will be closely watched as Manufacturing data last week blew past expectations. Keep in mind that great news has not had a great effect on the market.

Resistance - 1757-59**, 1766*, 1774.50-1776***, 1785*, 1800*

Support - 1750-53.25**, 1742.75**, 1734.50-1736***, 1723-26**

(NYMEX:CLZ13) - Market Held In Check Until After Expiration: Crude Oil has continued to consolidate as it trades in the red this morning following a lower growth outlook in Europe. Still all eyes will be on the ECB later this week as the Dollar has continued to consolidate. A Dollar back above 81 will likely press Crude through the lowest level since June at 93.70. Major resistance now comes in on the week at previous lows at 95.95, only a close back above here will encourage a consolidation higher. Over supply has led this market lower for the last four to six weeks. Production out of Libya has slowed slightly. Traders will be watching API and EIA tomorrow morning to see if the oversupply trend continues as the market is beginning to reach oversold territory. The currency market has had a major impact on commodity prices over the last two weeks, traders must watch the Dollar closely leading up to Thursday's ECB. If support holds at 93.70 look for a consolidation between 93.70 and 95.95, still with 94.76 being a major resistance level that can be cautiously sold against.

Resistance -94.76**, 95.95***, 96.16*, 96.66-97.00*, 97.61-97.78***, 98.65*, 99.50-99.65***

Support - 93.71**, 90.00**, 88.00***

About the Author
Rich Ilczyszyn

Rich Ilczyszyn is Founder and Chief Market Strategist of Rich excels at creating dynamic trading strategies for clients that establish solid positions, while remaining flexible enough to capitalize on market opportunities when they arise. By identifying market trends, breakouts, and failures in a timely fashion, Rich presents clients with the opportunity to realize their objectives while effectively managing their risk.

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