Dow manages new high; key indicator fails; Russell 2000 sinks

Weekly Review: MAAD & CPFL Analysis

Conclusion

New highs with caveats were the name of the game last week in the stock market. The Dow 30 eked out a higher high and its best level since March 2009, but Cumulative Volume (CV) in the Dow did not confirm that strength. Some might say, “Who cares about the volume?” Others might answer, “Up volume drives prices higher.” It would be a toss-up except for the fact that our Smart-Money-sensitive Most Actives indicator (MAAD) also didn’t like the new highs and refused to better its October 22 peak and its best level since March 2009. That failure suggests Big Money has been selling into recent strength.

The boundaries are relatively clear. If more new highs follow, MAAD and CV must confirm that action. If new highs do not follow and short-term selling gains momentum, the odds would substantially increase, due to developing weakness in CV and MAAD, that the Intermediate Cycle advance begun nearly a year ago is over and that the next point to be tested would be the long-term uptrend.

MAAD daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL daily data for past 30 days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

9-23-13

6

14

9-23-13

14829

37355

9-24-13

7

13

9-24-13

25829

49430

9-25-13

10

10

9-25-13

10517

39419

9-26-13

11

9

9-26-13

17990

17811

9-27-13

7

13

9-27-13

2903

47777

9-30-13

5

15

9-30-13

19369

35964

10-1-13

17

3

10-1-13

9773

21260

10-2-13

14

6

10-2-13

24406

27104

10-3-13

2

18

10-3-13

51247

60320

10-4-13

18

2

10-4-13

78764

19149

10-7-13

7

13

10-7-13

11648

18960

10-8-13

1

19

10-8-13

69751

123128

10-9-13

11

9

10-9-13

13513

37755

10-10-13

18

2

10-10-13

62726

43712

10-11-13

10

10

10-11-13

38212

37220

10-14-13

17

3

10-14-13

43546

44435

10-15-13

4

16

10-15-13

15112

18252

10-16-13

15

4

10-16-13

27340

16723

10-17-13

15

4

10-17-13

80828

10441

10-18-13

15

5

10-18-13

67955

55686

10-21-13

10

10

10-21-13

71966

35027

10-22-13

11

8

10-22-13

59620

10160

10-23-13

3

17

10-23-13

33177

15783

10-24-13

9

11

10-24-13

19346

12420

10-25-13

12

8

10-25-13

19270

8891

10-28-13

10

10

10-28-13

26553

34754

10-29-13

14

6

10-29-13

43859

20258

10-30-13

8

11

10-30-13

31442

46932

10-31-13

6

14

10-31-13

38287

21692

11-1-13

12

8

11-1-13

35295

65349

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

4-12-13

17

3

4-12-13

102421

24788

4-19-13

5

15

4-19-13

77064

98927

4-26-13

16

4

4-26-13

69002

47733

5-3-13

18

2

5-3-13

106307

39059

5-10-13

16

4

5-10-13

101919

27785

5-17-13

16

4

5-17-13

264768

40669

5-24-13

7

13

5-24-13

133188

105220

5-31-13

10

10

5-31-13

52189

172660

6-7-13

14

6

6-7-13

208337

89250

6-14-13

6

14

6-14-13

84672

121886

6-21-13

4

16

6-21-13

47968

226866

6-28-13

16

4

6-28-13

102801

64660

7-5-13

11

9

7-5-13

79591

26170

7-12-13

18

2

7-12-13

145875

46051

7-19-13

12

8

7-19-13

60057

30066

7-26-13

9

11

7-26-13

39694

27418

8-2-13

16

3

8-2-13

52347

54888

8-9-13

9

11

8-9-13

44818

132161

8-16-13

5

15

8-16-13

49366

206060

8-23-13

12

7

8-23-13

39357

90644

8-30-13

1

19

8-30-13

64499

287292

9-6-13

18

2

9-6-13

62543

58305

9-13-13

18

2

9-13-13

89735

66677

9-20-13

17

2

9-20-13

99524

121395

9-27-13

9

11

9-27-13

41276

194942

10-4-13

10

8

10-4-13

55191

147092

10-11-13

11

9

10-11-13

204436

146198

10-18-13

16

4

10-18-13

254565

87370

10-25-13

11

9

10-25-13

146265

55341

11-1-13

10

10

11-1-13

137419

177101

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

 


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About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

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