WTI crude falls below $95 first time since June on supply surge

Price Outlook

WTI will probably extend losses next week, according to a Bloomberg survey. Twenty of 29 analysts and traders, or 69%, predicted WTI futures will decrease through Nov. 8. Seven respondents, or 24%, said there will be an advance and two projected little change.

The dollar increased as much as 0.8% to $1.348 against the euro, curbing demand for raw materials denominated in the U.S. currency. The S&P’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials declined 1.7% to 611.64 at 3:31 p.m.

The ECB may cut rates next week after data yesterday showed the region’s inflation fell to the least since November 2009, according to Bank of America Corp., UBS AG and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

“The falling euro is breaking the backs of demand for commodities,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy. “The deflationary environment will lead to a weaker euro, which is bearish for this market.”

U.S. Manufacturing

The dollar rallied further after a report that U.S. manufacturing grew in October at a faster pace than forecast. The Institute for Supply Management’s index climbed to 56.4, the highest level since April 2011, from 56.2 a month earlier, according to a report today from the Tempe, Arizona-based group. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 55.

OPEC’s crude output rose in October after the completion of maintenance work in Iraq, a Bloomberg survey showed yesterday. The 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted daily production by 38,000 barrels a day to an average of 30.621 million, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts.

Iraq exported 2.25 million barrels a day of crude in October, up 8.8% from the prior month, Asim Jihad, an oil ministry spokesman, said by phone today from Baghdad.

Libyan Output

Libya is producing 350,000 to 400,000 barrels a day, Ibrahim Al Awami, the oil ministry’s head of measurement and inspection, said by phone yesterday, or about 100,000 barrels a day more than earlier this week.

“Oil is under a lot of pressure because oil supplies are trending sharply higher here and there may be some anticipation that the trend will continue,” Evans said. “Libyan production is increasing and there was an improvement in Iraqi exports in October that suggests maintenance is ending.”

Implied volatility for at-the-money WTI options expiring in December was 20.1%, up from 19.1% yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

Electronic trading volume on the Nymex was 526,981 contracts as of 3:32 p.m. It totaled 570,357 contracts yesterday, 1.9% below the three-month average. Open interest was 1.76 million contracts.

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