General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading. Bulls refuse to give up easily as they still see short production. Ivory Coast is estimating its production at about 1.4 million tons this year, about unchanged from last year. There have been no reports yet on quality or yields from Ghana, but Nigeria says it has good crops. The weather is good now, and arrivals at ports are increasing throughout the region. The harvest is underway and it could be that prices work lower for the near term. However, the overall fundamental picture should support higher prices as the supply situation should be tight. That implies that the market should be able to digest the harvest relatively easily and resume the longer term rally soon. However, demand has slacked off since the big surge of the last several weeks. Reports indicate that chocolate manufactures are now covered through the big demand holiday period coming up and do not need to buy. That implies that Cocoa prices can work lower through the harvest.
Overnight News: Scattered showers or dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.754 million bags. LIFFE stocks are now 4,731 standard delivery units, 129 large delivery units, and 0 bulk delivery units. Cameroon exports ere 19,659 tons in August and September, from 30,248 tons last year.
General Comments: Futures closed lower once again despite great export sales as announced by USDA. Demand is poor at a time of expanding harvest, and traders felt that the delayed export sales announcements were already built into the prices. Traders worry that China will not be a big buyer this year as the government there has been buying a lot and might have enough. However that has been true in past years but the private mills bought here, anyway. China was a big buyer in the delayed reports. The private buyers will not have to buy just from the US as there appear to be increasing supplies available from other origins like India and Pakistan. Good weather in US productions areas should be replaced by scattered showers over the middle of the week, but the crop should remain in good condition as the rains are not expected to be big. Traders should get more reports on demand this week. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia. US crop conditions right now are generally good in Texas. The Delta and Southeast are reporting generally favorable conditions as well. Trends are down on the charts.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see rain develop today and tomorrow, then dry weather again over the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is 74.66 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.149 million bales, from 0.146 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 76.40 and 75.10 December. Support is at 76.80, 76.00, and 75.70 December, with resistance of 78.80, 79.10, and 79.75 December.
General Comments: Futures closed higher on follow through speculative short covering and some new speculative buying. There will be less production this year due to greening disease and some unfavorable weather earlier in the year. However, demand remains mostly on the weak side and there have been no tropical systems to hit the state. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Dry weather has returned and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Fruit is reported to be sizing well and of consistent size and trees are reported in good condition. Some early harvest has started. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and showers.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. USDA said that FCOJ in Cold Storage was 795 million pounds.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 117.00, and 114.00 November, with resistance at 124.00, 127.00, and 129.50 November.
General Comments: Futures were lower on ideas of big world production. Traders think that there is still a lot of Coffee to sell in Brazil and in northern South America and also know that a fairly big crop is coming from Vietnam. The Vietnamese harvest will continue under good conditions as weather is mostly dry. The production in Vietnam is expected to be very big and traders expect more downward pressure on prices as the harvest starts to hit the market. Brazil has a lot of Coffee to sell yet, but the market there is quiet. Colombia is actively selling even with very cheap prices and the production there is much larger than in recent years. The rest of northern Latin America was quiet. Coffee is available in Central America, but the market was quiet. There were offers, but bids and offers were far apart.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightly higher today and are about 2.712 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 99.86 ct/lb. Brazil should get light showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get light showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. LIFFE stocks are now 5,302 lots.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 106.00 December. Support is at 105.00, 102.00, and 99.00 December, and resistance is at 108.00, 110.00, and 113.50 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1400 January, and resistance is at 1575, 1605, and 1665 January. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 123.50 December. Support is at 126.00, 123.00, and 120.00 December, and resistance is at 132.00, 135.00, and 136.50 December.
General Comments: Futures were little changed but closed on a weak note. Prices could continue to work lower in the short term as there are still probably some trapped longs from the big rally seen a couple of weeks ago. The fire at the port warehouses of Coopersucar has hurt the overall export pace from Brazil, but other origins, mostly India and Thailand, have been happy to step in and fill the void. The overall fundamental of big supplies remains. Sugar prices had dropped until recently due to big world production and especially big production ion Brazil. The production in Brazil and around the world is still there, but the ability of Brazil to export is much more difficult now. Meanwhile, countries like India and Thailand have a little less competition for sales. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are rated as mostly good.
Overnight News: Brazil could see light showers with near to above normal temperatures. .
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1775 March. Support is at 1830, 1820, and 1815 March, and resistance is at 1880, 1905, and 1915 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 471.00 and 442.00 December. Support is at 478.00, 470.00, and 465.00 December, and resistance is at 489.00, 493.00, and 498.00 December.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2620, 2530, and 2410 December. Support is at 2645, 2610, and 2560 December, with resistance at 2695, 2750, and 2780 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1660 December. Support is at 1670, 1640, and 1610 December, with resistance at 1725, 1740, and 1760 December.