Coffee falls as Vietnam harvest ramps up

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were lower again as the Vietnamese harvest started to ramp up. London markets held better as longs rolled positions from November to forward months and on ideas that the big Monday selloff was overdone. The Vietnamese harvest will continue under good conditions as weather is mostly dry. The production in Vietnam is expected to be very big and traders expect more downward pressure on prices as the harvest starts to hit the market Brazil has a lot of Coffee to sell yet, but the market there seems quiet now. Colombia is actively selling even with very cheap prices and the production there is much larger than in recent years. The rest of northern Latin America was quiet. Coffee is available in Central America, but the market was quiet. There were offers, but bids and offers were far apart.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.725 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 101.42 ct/lb. Brazil should get light showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get light showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 106.00 December. Support is at 105.00, 102.00, and 99.00 December, and resistance is at 110.00, 113.50, and 115.00 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1450, 1420, and 1390 November, and resistance is at 1560, 1600, and 1625 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 123.50 December. Support is at 129.00, 126.00, and 123.00 December, and resistance is at 135.00, 136.50, and 139.00 December.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower on demand concerns. Demand is poor at a time of expanding harvest, and for now the market is in search of some export sales. Traders worry that China will not be a big buyer this year as the government there has been buying a lot and might have enough. However that has been true in past years but the private mills bought here, anyway. The private buyers will not have to buy just from the US as there appear to be increasing supplies available from other origins like India and Pakistan. Good weather in US productions areas should be replaced by scattered showers over the middle of the week, but the crop should remain in good condition as the rains are not expected to be big. Traders should get more reports on demand this week. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia. US crop conditions right now are generally good in Texas. The Delta and Southeast are reporting generally favorable conditions as well. Trends are mostly down on the charts.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see rain develop today and tomorrow, then dry weather again by the end of the week and over the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will see dry weather, but a few showers are possible today. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is 75.71 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.141 million bales, from 0.134 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 78.30, 77.40, and 76.80 December, with resistance of 79.75, 80.10, and 81.20 December.

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