Cotton drop portends more price weakness

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were lower again in all three markets as traders see no reason to buy much. It was a quiet session and the cash market seemed quiet, too. The Vietnamese harvest has started and there are reported to be increasing offers from that origin. The harvest will continue under good conditions as weather is mostly dry. The production in Vietnam is expected to be very big and traders expect more downward pressure on prices as the harvest starts to hit the market. Speculators are selling to try to get in front of the cash sales Brazil is thought to have a lot of Coffee to sell yet, but the market there seems quiet now. Colombia is actively selling even with very cheap prices. The rest of northern Latin America was quiet. Coffee is available in Central America, but the market was quiet.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.727 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 104.78 ct/lb. Brazil should get light showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get light showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 106.00 December. Support is at 108.00, 105.00, and 102.00 December, and resistance is at 113.50, 115.00, and 118.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1550 November. Support is at 1540, 1510, and 1480 November, and resistance is at 1600, 1625, and 1650 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 123.50 December. Support is at 132.00, 129.00, and 126.00 December, and resistance is at 136.50, 139.00, and 140.00 December.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBH14)

General Comments: Futures were higher in consolidation trading on Friday. Prices have completely given back the gains seen from the fire in Brazil and are back in the trading range seen up until the fire. There was a small fire reported at another warehouse, but it was not a big enough event to worry the trade. The overall fundamental of big supplies remains. Sugar prices had dropped until recently due to big world production and especially big production ion Brazil. The production in Brazil and around the world is still there, but the ability of Brazil to export just got to be more of a problem. Meanwhile, countries like India and Thailand have a little less competition for sales. India especially has been taking advantage of this fact and has sold a lot of Sugar into Dubai in the last week. Total sales could be 150,000 tons in that time. There are reports of strong offers from Thailand. Thai differentials are stable. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are rated as mostly good.

Overnight News: Brazil could see light showers with near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1880, 1865, and 1855 March, and resistance is at 1935, 1975, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 499.00, 493.00, and 487.00 December, and resistance is at 510.00, 517.00, and 519.00 December.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher as some bargain hunting hit the pit and some shorts decided to cover. Trends appear sideways for the short term. News of harvest progress in West Africa amid improving conditions was negative. Nigeria said last week that the quality of its crop is good right now. The weather is good now, and arrivals at ports are increasing. The harvest is underway and it could be that prices work lower for the near term. However, the overall fundamental picture should support higher prices as the supply situation should be tight and demand looks strong. That implies that the market should be able to digest the harvest relatively easily and resume the longer term rally soon.

Overnight News: Scattered showers or dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.839 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2675, 2655, and 2645 December, with resistance at 2750, 2780, and 2810 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1660 December. Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1660 December, with resistance at 1740, 1760, and 1800 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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