Cocoa turns lower as traders watch harvest data

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher again on follow through speculative short covering. The weather is still good and demand is still bad. There will be less production this year due to greening disease and some unfavorable weather earlier in the year, but has no reason to rally as demand remains mostly on the weak side and there have been no tropical systems to hit the state. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Dry weather has returned and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal.      

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 118.00, 116.50, and 115.00 November, with resistance at 122.50, 125.00, and 127.50 November.

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were lower again in all three markets as traders see no reason to buy much. It was a quiet session. Traders in London and around the world are waiting for Vietnam to harvest and sell, and the harvest is underway. The harvest has been delayed due to rains throughout the country over the last couple of weeks, but it is dry now and the harvest can proceed under good conditions. The production in Vietnam is expected to be very big and traders expect more downward pressure on prices once the harvest starts to hit the market. We expect the harvest to total about 27 million bags. Brazil is thought to have a lot of Coffee to sell yet, but the market there seems quiet now. Colombia is actively selling even with very cheap prices. Coffee is available in Central America, but the market was quiet there yesterday.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.732 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 104.78 ct/lb. Brazil should get light showers or dry conditions. Showers are likely early next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should be mostly dry or get light showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 106.00 December. Support is at 108.00, 105.00, and 102.00 December, and resistance is at 113.50, 115.00, and 118.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1580 November. Support is at 1570, 1540, and 1510 November, and resistance is at 1625, 1650, and 1670 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 123.50 December. Support is at 132.00, 129.00, and 126.00 December, and resistance is at 136.50, 139.00, and 140.00 December.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBH14)

General Comments: Futures were lower and prices have completely given back the gains seen from the fire in Brazil last Friday. The overall fundamental of big supplies remains. Sugar prices had dropped until recently due to big world production and especially big production ion Brazil. The production in Brazil and around the world is still there, but the ability of Brazil to export just got to be more of a problem. Meanwhile, countries like India and Thailand have a little less competition for sales. Dry weather or scattered showers are now reported in production areas of Brazil. India should still have more than enough production to allow for exports and is offering. There are reports of strong offers from Thailand. Thai differentials are stable. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are rated as mostly good.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1880, 1865, and 1855 March, and resistance is at 1935, 1975, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 499.00, 493.00, and 487.00 December, and resistance is at 510.00, 517.00, and 519.00 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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