Markets are in sharp reversal after yesterday’s risk-on rally. We can see some U.S. dollar recovery this morning but for now that's only on the intra-day basis, larger picture is still down for the buck, so technically nothing changes. The only difference is maybe a shift between strong commodity currencies to a temporary bearish picture. But the important part here is “temporary.” Before we go to some wave counts, lets firstly take a look on correlations.
On the chart below we can see a comparison between S&P, EUR/USD and AUD/USD. We can see that AUD/USD is the weakest and EUR/USD the strongest, so based on this relationship it’s better to put money into the EUR rather than in to AUD if of course you assume that S&P will stay in bullish mode.
S&P vs EUR/USD vs AUD/USD
EUR/USD 4h – Elliott Wave Analysis
EUR/USD broke to a new high yesterday, which has been technical expected after very slow and sideways price action above 1.3650, which was just another correction within larger uptrend. Based on a strong upward reaction it was probably wave (ii) and now wave (iii) underway above 1.3800 and much higher in days ahead as we suspect that pair is in the middle of a larger impulsive rally.
Break and daily close back beneath 1.37 will be a warning sign for a change in trend; from bullish to temporary bearish mode
EUR/USD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis