Coffee falls as markets wait on Vietnam harvest

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were lower again in all three markets. There was no news around to spark buying interest from roasters or speculators, and not that much trading. Traders there are waiting for Vietnam to harvest and sell, but that is still a few weeks away. The harvest has been delayed due to rains throughout the country over the last couple of weeks. Traders expect more downward pressure on prices once the harvest starts to hit the market. Brazil is thought to have a lot of Coffee to sell yet, but the Real moved higher against the Dollar and offers from that origin were less. Colombia and Peru are actively selling. Producers all over the world are worried about the low prices and are trying to hold back on offers, but differentials and futures prices remain very low. Differentials were weaker yesterday. Brazil markets appear mostly quiet. Coffee is available in Central America, and offers were more animat3ed yesterday.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.742 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 106.34 ct/lb. Brazil should get light showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should be mostly dry or get light showers. Hurricane Raymond will drop some big rains over parts of central Mexico in the next couple of days, then is forecast to move west by the end of the week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00, 111.00, and 106.00 December. Support is at 111.00, 108.00, and 105.00 December, and resistance is at 115.00, 118.00, and 119.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1580 November. Support is at 1600, 1570, and 1540 November, and resistance is at 1650, 1670, and 1710 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 136.50, 135.00, and 132.00 December, and resistance is at 140.00, 142.00, and 143.00 December.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed slightly lower in quiet trading. The market acts weak and appears ready to make new lows for the move through the end of the week. USDA showed that the harvest has been slow in its release Monday. Crop condition ratings were good. Traders should get more reports on demand as the week moves on. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia. US crop conditions right now are generally good in Texas. The Delta and Southeast are reporting generally favorable conditions as well. Trends are mostly down on the charts and price action yesterday was weak.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is 79.54 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.094 million bales, from 0.86 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 82.50, 82.10, and 81.70 December, with resistance of 83.40, 84.10, and 84.40 December.

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