As stock market sinks, then spikes higher, detractors persist

Weekly Review: MAAD & CPFL Analysis

Conclusion

At some point in the long-term bull trend that began in March 2009 there will be a short-term pullback that will be followed by a short-term rally that will not lift all of the major indexes to new highs. That failure will be preceded by failures in Cumulative Volume (CV), Momentum, and other indicators. The long-term trend will have simply run out of oxygen and thereafter the only way forward will be down.

The intermediate-term rally that has been underway since last November 16 and for nearly a year, has lasted longer than we anticipated. On a purely statistical basis, many of our indicators peaked back in May and early June. Those include Momentum, Cumulative Volume, and CPFL. On the other hand, MAAD on both the Daily and Weekly Cycles apparently still likes this market. That favoritism is a reflection of Smart Money preferences. And with a new high last week in VALUA, to bet negatively on this market with all indexes possibly poised to make new highs again could be foolish. Nonetheless, one of these days, one of these rallies will be the last rally of the long-term bull.

MAAD daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL daily data for past 30 days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

8-30-13

7

13

8-30-13

4341

40669

9-3-13

15

5

9-3-13

19151

10760

9-4-13

18

2

9-4-13

16402

44520

9-5-13

18

2

9-5-13

10876

7863

9-6-13

10

8

9-6-13

20113

13375

9-9-13

18

2

9-9-13

14877

16433

9-10-13

15

5

9-10-13

37460

21548

9-11-13

15

5

9-11-13

15050

30730

9-12-13

3

16

9-12-13

16370

23336

9-13-13

14

5

9-13-13

10668

4246

9-16-13

12

7

9-16-13

25807

43346

9-17-13

17

3

9-17-13

17778

10023

9-18-13

20

0

9-18-13

44523

34687

9-19-13

9

11

9-19-13

26912

17440

9-20-13

3

17

9-20-13

34321

28948

9-23-13

6

14

9-23-13

14829

37355

9-24-13

7

13

9-24-13

25829

49430

9-25-13

10

10

9-25-13

10517

39419

9-26-13

11

9

9-26-13

17990

17811

9-27-13

7

13

9-27-13

2903

47777

9-30-13

5

15

9-30-13

19369

35964

10-1-13

17

3

10-1-13

9773

21260

10-2-13

14

6

10-2-13

24406

27104

10-3-13

2

18

10-3-13

51247

60320

10-4-13

18

2

10-4-13

78764

19149

10-7-13

7

13

10-7-13

11648

18960

10-8-13

1

19

10-8-13

69751

123128

10-9-13

11

9

10-9-13

13513

37755

10-10-13

18

2

10-10-13

62726

43712

10-11-13

10

10

10-11-13

38212

37220

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

3-22-13

6

14

3-22-13

60614

38326

3-29-13

13

7

3-29-13

46289

19185

4-5-13

7

13

4-5-13

36138

75905

4-12-13

17

3

4-12-13

102421

24788

4-19-13

5

15

4-19-13

77064

98927

4-26-13

16

4

4-26-13

69002

47733

5-3-13

18

2

5-3-13

106307

39059

5-10-13

16

4

5-10-13

101919

27785

5-17-13

16

4

5-17-13

264768

40669

5-24-13

7

13

5-24-13

133188

105220

5-31-13

10

10

5-31-13

52189

172660

6-7-13

14

6

6-7-13

208337

89250

6-14-13

6

14

6-14-13

84672

121886

6-21-13

4

16

6-21-13

47968

226866

6-28-13

16

4

6-28-13

102801

64660

7-5-13

11

9

7-5-13

79591

26170

7-12-13

18

2

7-12-13

145875

46051

7-19-13

12

8

7-19-13

60057

30066

7-26-13

9

11

7-26-13

39694

27418

8-2-13

16

3

8-2-13

52347

54888

8-9-13

9

11

8-9-13

44818

132161

8-16-13

5

15

8-16-13

49366

206060

8-23-13

12

7

8-23-13

39357

90644

8-30-13

1

19

8-30-13

64499

287292

9-6-13

18

2

9-6-13

62543

58305

9-13-13

18

2

9-13-13

89735

66677

9-20-13

17

2

9-20-13

99524

121395

9-27-13

9

11

9-27-13

41276

194942

10-4-13

10

8

10-4-13

55191

147092

10-11-13

11

9

10-11-13

204436

146198

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

 


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About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

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