Sugar falls as conditions drier in producing areas

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower in range trading. The market was active yesterday as traders try to position for what might come next. The market is keeping in a range as there will be less production this year due to greening disease and some unfavorable weather earlier in the year, but has no reason to rally as demand remains mostly on the weak side and there have been no tropical systems to hit the state so far. In fact, there have not been that many tropical systems seen in the Atlantic at all this year.. Florida weather conditions overall remain good, with good rains before and good irrigation water available now. Production will be down due to the greening disease and some drought stress early in the year, but these losses are mostly factored into the price. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some light showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal.  

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 126.00, 125.00, and 122.50 November, with resistance at 132.00, 135.00, and 139.00 November.

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were a little higher, and London was higher due to ideas of tight supplies available to the Robusta market for at least the short term. Traders there are waiting for Vietnam to harvest and sell. They expect more downward pressure on prices once the harvest starts to hit the market. Brazil is thought to have a lot of Coffee to sell yet, and the Vietnamese harvest is now started. Plus, Colombia and Peru are actively selling. Producers all over the world are worried about the low prices and are trying to hold back on offers, but differentials and futures prices remain very low. Dry conditions are in the forecast in Brazil. Brazil markets appear mostly quiet. Coffee is available in Central America, but the market there seems very quiet. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but the rust is still a big problem.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 2.758 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 109.61 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Northern Mexico should be mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 113.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 117.00, 119.00, and 121.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1670, 1640, and 1600 November, and resistance is at 1740, 1755, and 1770 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 December, and resistance is at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.50 December.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower on some speculative long liquidation. It was mostly a quiet session. There was nothing new to support the strong bull trend the market has been in for the last few days. However, the EU grind data was released this morning and was considered bullish for prices. The EU third quarter grind was 331,514 tons, up 4.7% from last year. Production in West Africa suffered this year due to drought in production areas. Rains are fine now, but are expected to be above average for the last half of the month. More than normal rains could impede harvest progress and hurt bean quality. The quality could be hurt as most farmers do not have good storage facilities. However, a strong rally now might encourage farmers to sell, and that would help with the quality as the beans would move to better facilities near the ports. Malaysia and Indonesia weather is favorable with scattered showers.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern áreas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.100 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2720 and 2810 December. Support is at 2655, 2645, and 2625 December, with resistance at 2740, 2770, and 2800 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1770 and 1840 December. Support is at 1730, 1715, and 1700 December, with resistance at 1780, 1810, and 1840 December.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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