The following table compares my projections for this week's report (for the categories I am making projections) with the change in inventories for the same period last year. As you can see from the table, last year's inventories are not in directional sync with the projections. As such if the actual data is in line with the projections there will be modest changes in the year-over-year inventory comparisons for everything in the complex.
I am maintaining my oil view and bias at neutral as the geopolitical tensions ease, supply from Libya starts to increase all being offset partially by the ongoing QE program in the U.S. but negatively impacted by the U.S. government shutdown. Currently oil market participants seemed to have moved into a risk-off mode.
I am maintaining my Nat Gas view at neutral and moving my bias to cautiously bullish as the market sentiment seems to be changing once again. The fundamental picture could also once again shift as the temperatures across the U.S. start to return to more normal levels.
Markets are mostly higher heading into the U.S. trading session as shown in the following table.
Dominick A. Chirichella