Coffee bearish on rising supplies, light demand

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were mixed, with Sao Paulo and New York a little higher, but London trading a little lower. Traders remain bearish overall on coffee prices due to big supplies available and only light demand. Brazil is thought to have a lot of coffee to sell yet, and the Vietnamese harvest is now started. Plus, Colombia and Peru are actively selling. Producers all over the world are worried about the low prices and are trying to hold back on offers, but differentials and futures prices remain very low. Dry conditions are in the forecast in Brazil. Brazil markets appear mostly quiet. Coffee is available in Central America, but the market there seems very quiet. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but the rust is still a big problem.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 2.760 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 109.25 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Northern Mexico should be mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00, 111.00, and 106.00 December. Support is at 113.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 117.00, 119.00, and 121.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1640, and 1600 November, and resistance is at 1740, 1755, and 1770 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 December, and resistance is at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.50 December.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower on follow through selling as Tropical Sorm Karen moved away from the state late in the weekend, and is in a much diminished state as weather conditions in the Gulf partially brokle the system apart. The storm did not hurt open bolls or hurt overall quality. Growing conditions seem to be imroving in the rest of the world. India is turning warmer and drier there this week after some big rains last week. Worries about Chinese production are also heard after some big typhoons passed near important production areas. This área is also turning drier this week. Brazil conditions are reported to be very good in Bahia. US crop conditions right now are generally good in Texas. Trends turned mixed on the charts with the price action this week.

Overnight News: The Delta will be dry and Southeast will see showers in the east, otherwise dry weather. All áreas should be dry over the weekend. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will see dry weather through Thursday, then light showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is not avilable today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.014 million bales, from 0.014 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 83.60, 82.90, and 82.10 December, with resistance of 84.20, 85.50, and 85.80 December.

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