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Worst stocks to reverse with commodity profits rising 18%

By Nick Taborek, Whitney Kisling and Lu Wang, Bloomberg

October 7, 2013 • Reprints

Super Cycle

Commodity supply constraints and demand from emerging markets mean it’s premature to talk about the death of the super cycle that brought a longer-than-average period of rising prices, McKinsey & Co. said in a Sept. 26 report. The New York- based consulting firm said producers are being forced deeper into remote areas of the world to secure supplies that require increasingly sophisticated technology to extract as consumption expands.

LyondellBasell has benefited from the boom in natural gas production from U.S. shale formations that pushed prices down 52% in the past five years.

The company produces ethylene, a chemical used in everything from shampoo to garbage bags, from natural gas at about 10 cents a pound, Doug Pike, the company’s vice president of investor relations, said at a conference on Aug. 13. That’s a lower cost compared with companies in Europe and Asia that make ethylene from crude oil for about 50 cents a pound, he said. Analysts predict the Houston-based firm will boost profit 17% next year. The shares are up 32% in 2013.

Housing Recovery

The housing recovery will boost earnings at Vulcan Materials as demand for building materials increases, Chief Executive Officer Donald James said on an Aug. 1 call with analysts. The Birmingham, Alabama-based company may earn 63 cents a share next year, compared with a loss of 10 cents a share in 2013, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Vulcan shares have gained 1.5% this year.

Allegheny Technologies, which produces specialty metals used in manufacturing, is poised to boost profit to $1.31 a share next year, from 21 cents in 2013, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Prices for the company’s key raw materials are near a bottom, Richard Harshman, the company’s chief executive officer, told investors on a July conference call. The shares rallied 16% during the third quarter after tumbling 17% in the previous three months.

“The companies have lagged as commodity prices have come under more stress the last few years,” Eric Teal, who helps oversee $5 billion as the chief investment officer at First Citizens BancShares Inc. in Raleigh, North Carolina, said by phone. “The outlook is optimistic. The emerging markets will continue to produce high levels of GDP growth. Fundamentally, they look attractive.”

www.bloomberg.com

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Copyright 2014 Bloomberg. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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oil 6597energy 3807commodities 3439crude oil 3328mining 3077financials 2975S&P 500 2456stocks 2123Standard & Poor 2008natural gas 1979equities 1689manufacturing 1315Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 864Stock indexes 843New York 841gross domestic product 748Barclays Plc 573Colorado 555North Carolina 251chemicals 239Bill Gross 198natural gas production 196Exxon Mobil Corp. 181John Boehner 174technology 169Alabama 165Pacific Investment Management Co. 164Alcoa Inc. 151Delaware 135BlackRock Inc. 131Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. 102Corn 94aluminum producer 80plastics 68Bloomberg Industries 66chemical 53steel producer 52DuPont Co. 27Monsanto Co. 26U.S. Steel Corp. 26Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. 25International Grains Council 23chemical maker 22McKinsey & Co. 20Nucor Corp. 16Gamco Investors Inc. 13Howard Ward 13Larry Fink 11telephone 10fund management 10Eric Teal 10metal producers 9First Citizens BancShares Inc. 8Baring Asset Management Inc. 6Internet boom 6chemical producers 6Hayes Miller 6mining companies 5BNY Mellon Wealth Management 5Vulcan Materials Co. 5Allegheny Technologies Inc. 4benchmark product 4LyondellBasell Industries NV 2Leo Grohowski 2Richard Harshman 1Doug Pike 1Riskier Securities 1ICON Advisers Inc. 1steel coil 1cement supplier 1crop processors 1seed supplier 1natural gas firms 1Hodges Fund 1ICON Materials Fund 1Zach Jonson 1Don Hodges 1Donald James 1

Free Newsletter Modern Trader Follow

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