Cotton reacts to Tropical Storm Karen dissipating

COTTON (NYBOT:CTZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed moderately higher as Tropical Storm Karen formed and was forecast to move into Georgia. It moved away from the state late in the weekend, and is in a much diminished state as weather conditions in the Gulf partially broke the system apart. The storm could hurt open bolls and hurt overall quality due to some big rains in production areas. Traders are also talking about monsoon rains in India that are slow to withdraw this year. The extra rains could really hurt quality there, and maybe yields. Worries about Chinese production are also heard after some big typhoons passed near important production areas . Some short covering was noted on ideas that the crop is less than expected in the US, in part due to the recent big rains. US crop conditions right now are generally good in Texas. Trends remain up on the charts.

Overnight News: The Delta will be dry and Southeast will see showers in the east today, then dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is not available today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.011 million bales, from 0.011 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8940 and 9300 December. Support is at 86.80, 85.80, and 85.50 December, with resistance of 87.70, 87.85, and 89.40 December.

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on the formation of Tropical Storm Karen in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The storm moved to the US, but stayed well west of Florida citrus production areas. Florida weather conditions overall remain good, with good rains before and good irrigation water available now. Production will be down due to the greening disease and some drought stress early in the year, but these losses are mostly factored into the price. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 121.00 November. Support is at 126.00, 125.00, and 122.50 November, with resistance at 132.00, 135.00, and 139.00 November.

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