Gold traders bullish a third week on U.S. stalemate

Global Equities

Global equities are trading 2.4% below a five-year high set Sept. 19 on optimism stimulus from central banks around the world will strengthen the recovery. World economic expansion will increase to 3.8% in 2014, from 3.1% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Hedge funds and other large speculators increased bets on gains in gold by 12% in the week ended Sept. 24, the most in a month, to 78,654 contracts, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That pared this year’s drop in net-long positions to 23%.

Eight of 16 people surveyed expect raw sugar to fall next week and six were bullish. The commodity slid 5.1% to 18.52 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York this year.

Eight of 18 people surveyed anticipate lower corn prices and five said the grain will rise, while eight of 18 said soybeans will drop and seven expect higher prices. Eight predicted gains in wheat and four were bearish. Corn fell 37% to $4.41 a bushel this year in Chicago. Soybeans dropped 8.9% to $12.835 a bushel, as wheat slid 11% to $6.92 a bushel.

Metal Exchange

Six traders and analysts surveyed expect copper to rise next week, three were bearish and eight neutral. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark contract, dropped 9.4% to $7,189 a ton this year.

While improving demand will spur most industrial commodities to rally “a little further’ into the fourth quarter, gains will probably be modest, Credit Suisse said in a report yesterday. Growth in China, the biggest user of everything from copper to coal, slowed in the first two quarters of this year. A services-industry index in the country rose to a six-month high in September, data showed yesterday.

‘‘People genuinely believe there’s an economic recovery going on,” said Carole Ferguson, an analyst at SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP, a broker and adviser in London. “Industrial commodities aren’t going to sell off much from here. Chinese data had been picking up, so people were getting a bit more comfortable.”

Gold survey results: Bullish: 18 Bearish: 8 Hold: 4
Copper survey results: Bullish: 6 Bearish: 3 Hold: 8
Corn survey results: Bullish: 5 Bearish: 8 Hold: 5
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 7 Bearish: 8 Hold: 3
Wheat survey results: Bullish: 8 Bearish: 4 Hold: 3
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 6 Bearish: 8 Hold: 2
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 5 Bearish: 8 Hold: 3
White sugar premium results: Widen: 4 Narrow: 4 Neutral: 8

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