Cocoa drops on profit-taking ahead of harvest

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower despite the formation of Tropical Storm Karen in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The storm looks to move to the US, but is forecast to stay well west of Florida citrus production areas. Florida weather conditions overall remain good, with good rains before and good irrigation water available now. Production will be down due to the greening disease and some drought stress early in the year, but these losses are mostly factored into the price. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 126.00, 125.00, and 122.50 November, with resistance at 132.00, 135.00, and 139.00 November.

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday in quiet trading. It appeared to be a rally led mostly by speculative short covering. Producers all over the world are worried about the low prices. Rains are continuing in Brazil. Brazil markets appear mostly quiet. Coffee is available in Central America. New crop is now being offered and the last of the old crop is getting moved. Colombia is offering Coffee at stable differentials. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but the rust is still a big problem. The weather is good, with frequent rains.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 2.765 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 109.52 ct/lb. Brazil should get drier weather this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Northern Mexico should be mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal. LIFFE stocks are now 6,038 lots

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00, 111.00, and 106.00 December. Support is at 113.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 117.00, 119.00, and 121.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1640, 1600, and 1570 November, and resistance is at 1715, 1740, and 1770 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 December, and resistance is at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.50 December.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures were higher on follow through speculative buying tied to ideas of less production in Brazil. Trends remain up on the charts. India also might have production problems as the monsoon has been slow to recede. The increased potential for more crop losses in Brazil and other countries is due to rains in the forecast for this week. The rains have cut yields in Brazil and could do the same in India as the monsoon there has been very slow to recede. There is talk of increased offers from India and Thailand, and Thai differentials have been under some pressure in recent weeks, but are stable this week. Thailand expects more production this year, and is actively offering their supplies into the world market. India and Brazil are the same, so Sugar should be available at good prices for buyers.

Overnight News: Brazil could see scattered showers and moderate temperatures. .

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1880, 1940, and 1980 March. Support is at 1825, 1815, and 1790 March, and resistance is at 1870, 1880, and 1910 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 473.00 and 499.00 December. Support is at 487.00, 478.00, and 476.50 December, and resistance is at 495.00, 496.00, and 500.00 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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