Sugar gains after Brazil production estimates lowered

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in consolidation trading. Florida weather conditions overall remain good, with good rains before and good irrigation water available now. Production will be down due to the greening disease and some drought stress early in the year, but these losses are mostly factored into the price. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed.. Support is at 126.00, 125.00, and 122.50 November, with resistance at 132.00, 135.00, and 139.00 November.

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday in quiet trading. London was the leader to the upside as Vietnamese producers were not offering. A cyclone entered the country this week and could have damaged some of the production, but they are also unhappy with prices. They are not alone as producers all over the world are worried about the low prices seen in the markets these days. Rains are continuing in Brazil, which will promote good flowering for the next crop. No one is talking about big offers these days from Brazil, but everyone knows they had a big crop this past year and it will need to be moved. Coffee is available in Central America. New crop is now being offered and the last of the old crop is getting moved. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market as well. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but the rust is still a big problem. The weather is good, with frequent rains.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are unchanged today and are about 2.766 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 108.65 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers this week and drier weather this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Northern Mexico should be mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00, 111.00, and 106.00 December. Support is at 111.00, 108.00, and 105.00 December, and resistance is at 117.00, 119.00, and 121.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1580 November. Support is at 1640, 1600, and 1570 November, and resistance is at 1690, 1715, and 1740 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 123.50 December. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 December, and resistance is at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.50 December.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower again on more speculative profit taking. The fundamentals are still considered bullish as production still looks to be less than demand for the coming year. However, it is possible that a lot of the projected shortages are now part of the price. Cocoa is between crops, and offers are light. Rains have returned to West Africa. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving, but that already harvested beans can get moldy due in part to producer holding patterns and poor storage facilities. Ideas are that drought and hot temperatures seen earlier in the growing season has hurt bean size and yields. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern áreas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.189 million bags. Ivory Coast has raised its farm gate price in an effort to encourage sales and good production.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2610, 2580, and 2555 December, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1680, 1670, and 1650 December, with resistance at 1715, 1730, and 1750 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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