Coffee ticks higher after cyclone hits Vietnam crop


General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday in quiet trading. Some of the buying in London was tied to a tropical cyclone that has moved into Vietnam early this week and could cause some losses to coffee production. Producers in other countries, though, tell us the rains are hitting at a good time and any losses might not be that big. Rains are continuing in Brazil, which will promote good flowering for the next crop. No one is talking about big offers these days from Brazil, but everyone knows they had a big crop this past year and it will need to be moved. Coffee is available in Central America. New crop is now being offered and the last of the old crop is getting moved. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market as well. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but the rust is still a big problem. The weather is good, with frequent rains.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.766 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 107.99 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers this week and drier weather this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Northern Mexico should be mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00, 111.00, and 106.00 December. Support is at 111.00, 108.00, and 105.00 December, and resistance is at 117.00, 119.00, and 121.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1580 November. Support is at 1600, 1570, and 1540 November, and resistance is at 1660, 1665, and 1690 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 123.50 December. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 December, and resistance is at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.50 December.


General Comments: Futures closed moderately lower after trading sharply lower earlier in the session Economic worries caused by the shutdown in Washington was a reason to sell. The weather looks to be good for most of the week, but some showers could appear again on Friday and into the weekend. Traders also heard about monsoon rains in India that are slow to withdraw this year. The extra rains could really hurt quality there, and maybe yields. Worries about Chinese production are also Heard after some big typhoons passed near important production areas . Some short covering was noted on ideas that the crop is less than expected in the US, in part due to the recent big rains. US crop conditions right now are generally good with moderate to warm temperatures and dry conditions in the forecast for Texas this week and dry weather in the forecast for the Delta and Southeast. Some showers are possible in all areas by this weekend to slow harvest down and possibly create some quality concerns. Moves higher today could set the stage for a new leg higher on the charts.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather, but showers should developing the Delta on Friday. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will see dry weather until some showers appear at the end of the week. Temperatures will average above normal this week and below normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is not available today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.011 million bales, from 0.011 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8940 and 9300 December. Support is at 85.80, 85.50, and 84.60 December, with resistance of 86.65, 87.50, and 87.85 December.

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