COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)
General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday in quiet trading. Some of the buying in London was tied to a tropical cyclone that has moved into Vietnam early this week and could cause some losses to coffee production. Producers in other countries, though, tell us the rains are hitting at a good time and any losses might not be that big. Rains are continuing in Brazil, which will promote good flowering for the next crop. No one is talking about big offers these days from Brazil, but everyone knows they had a big crop this past year and it will need to be moved. Coffee is available in Central America. New crop is now being offered and the last of the old crop is getting moved. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market as well. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but the rust is still a big problem. The weather is good, with frequent rains.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.766 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 107.99 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers this week and drier weather this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Northern Mexico should be mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00, 111.00, and 106.00 December. Support is at 111.00, 108.00, and 105.00 December, and resistance is at 117.00, 119.00, and 121.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1580 November. Support is at 1600, 1570, and 1540 November, and resistance is at 1660, 1665, and 1690 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 123.50 December. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 December, and resistance is at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.50 December.
COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)
General Comments: Futures closed moderately lower after trading sharply lower earlier in the session Economic worries caused by the shutdown in Washington was a reason to sell. The weather looks to be good for most of the week, but some showers could appear again on Friday and into the weekend. Traders also heard about monsoon rains in India that are slow to withdraw this year. The extra rains could really hurt quality there, and maybe yields. Worries about Chinese production are also Heard after some big typhoons passed near important production areas . Some short covering was noted on ideas that the crop is less than expected in the US, in part due to the recent big rains. US crop conditions right now are generally good with moderate to warm temperatures and dry conditions in the forecast for Texas this week and dry weather in the forecast for the Delta and Southeast. Some showers are possible in all areas by this weekend to slow harvest down and possibly create some quality concerns. Moves higher today could set the stage for a new leg higher on the charts.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather, but showers should developing the Delta on Friday. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will see dry weather until some showers appear at the end of the week. Temperatures will average above normal this week and below normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is not available today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.011 million bales, from 0.011 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8940 and 9300 December. Support is at 85.80, 85.50, and 84.60 December, with resistance of 86.65, 87.50, and 87.85 December.
Next page: Orange Juice, Sugar and Cocoa
FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)
General Comments: Futures closed lower as the weather remains good in Florida. Traders note that no tropical systems have hit the state, and drier weather now might create some stress to trees. However, conditions overall remain good, with good rains before and good irrigation water available now. Production will be down due to the greening disease and some drought stress early in the year, but these losses are mostly factored into the price. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and showers.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed.. Support is at 126.00, 125.00, and 122.50 November, with resistance at 132.00, 135.00, and 139.00 November.
SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)
General Comments: Futures were higher and started a new leg up on the charts. October saw very large deliveries yesterday, but they were all stopped by commercial house Dreyfus, which was considered an indication of demand. News from Unica in Brazil that crop production there is likely less than earlier estimates was not a surprise, but was supportive to prices in any case. Traders also note the increased potential for more crop losses in Brazil and other countries due to rains in the forecast for this week. The rains have cut yields in Brazil and could do the same in India as the monsoon there has been very slow to recede. Trends are mixed, but the price action remains strong overall. There is talk of increased offers from India and Thailand, and Thai differentials have been under some pressure in recent weeks, but are stable so far this week. Thailand expects more production this year, and is actively offering their supplies into the world market. India and Brazil are the same, so Sugar should be available at good prices for buyers.
Overnight News: Brazil could see scattered showers and moderate temperatures. .
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1880, 1940, and 1980 March. Support is at 1815, 1790, and 1760 March, and resistance is at 1850, 1870, and 1880 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 473.00 and 499.00 December. Support is at 487.00, 478.00, and 476.50 December, and resistance is at 490.00, 500.00, and 504.00 December.
COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on what appeared to be speculative profit taking. The fundamentals are considered bullish as production still looks to be less tan demand for the coming year. Cocoa is between crops, and offers are light. Rains have returned to West Africa. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving, but that already harvested beans can get moldy due in part to producer holding patterns and poor storage facilities. Ideas are that drought and hot temperatures seen earlier in the growing season has hurt bean size and yields. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.211 million bags. Cargill is in the process of completing negotiations to buy the world Cocoa operations of ADM.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2720 December. Support is at 2610, 2580, and 2555 December, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1670, and 1650 December, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1750 December.
